fbpx

NEW on Borsa Italiana: -3x NVDA  -3x NIO 3x UBER 3x AMD -3x BABA 3x NFLX -3x COIN FAANG+

Learn More

Earnings: PLTR BABA UBER DIS ARM PYPL

Learn More

NEU: 14 neue ETPs jetzt auf Xetra 14 neue ETPs jetzt auf Xetra

Erfahren Sie mehr

Education Series: Single-Stock ETPs

Introducing Our Single-Stock ETPs
Short and Leveraged ETPs Explained
Rebalancing and Compounding
A Built-in Airbag to Limit Losses
ETPs vs Leveraged Alternatives
Six Things To Know About Our ETPs

Global Fund Managers: Most Bearish This Year

  • MARKET INSIGHTS

Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.

Websim is the retail division of Intermonte, the primary intermediary of the Italian stock exchange for institutional investors. Leverage Shares often features in its speculative analysis based on macros/fundamentals. However, the information is published in Italian. To provide better information for our non-Italian investors, we bring to you a quick translation of the analysis they present to Italian retail investors. To ensure rapid delivery, text in the charts will not be translated. The views expressed here are of Websim. Leverage Shares in no way endorses these views. If you are unsure about the suitability of an investment, please seek financial advice. View the original at

For its September update of its iconic Fund Manager Survey (which has been covered before), Bank of America, 212 panellists managing $616 billion in Assets Under Management (AUM) participated and provided some fascinating (and prescient) insight.

Over the past two months, the percentage of respondents expecting a weaker economy in the next 12 months has increased by 5% since the last survey.

“Stagflation” expectations, i.e. below-trend growth and above-trend inflation, are now at a record high.

With regard to the Eurozone, the survey records a recession to be most likely as a result of the energy crisis (as predicted in previous articles).

Now, over in the US, the Fed Rate hike is pinned as a major influence on market direction: the higher the rates, the lower the market goes. The survey was held a little before the current 75 bps rate hike was done to bring the rates to the 3% to 3.25% range. A majority of the respondents indicate an expectation of the rate to go even further to the 4 – 4.25% range.

An overwhelming majority of the respondents expect this to happen all through 2023, with the largest set of expectations at the Q1 and Q2 periods.

The survey respondents also reported their asset allocation to stocks at all-time lows. It bears noting that „allocation“ here means a long-term conviction that holding on to the asset is a „value builder“.

In terms of stock holdings, however, survey respondents indicate that they’re increasing their holdings in „defensives“, i.e. utilities, staples and healthcare stocks.

Outside of equities in general, two sectors/supersectors considered to perform especially badly would be both Eurozone and tech stocks (i.e. generally, the likes of Apple and Google).

As of right now, the US 2-Year Treasury bond yields a better return than the S&P 500. Despite this, in a report released by the same team subsequent to the FMS, BofA indicates that current outlook for the bond market is a record third instance of a „bond bear market“ expected to last until 2024. The primary reason for this is that bonds deliver inflation-beating returns. Even at current yields relative to the US market, these returns are not being considered to be strong enough returns to beat the net effect of inflation.

Last week, Mr. Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Management Research (FMR), made an interesting estimation: after the FOMC update was delivered, the forward-looking fair value for the S&P 500 dropped to 14X Forward Earnings Per Share (EPS) that day, which was 15% below that day’s level. If earnings growth ends up being flat (at $219) instead of growing +10%, fair value declines by 36%.

Mr Timmer further stated that equities have seen little outflow, and money markets have seen very little inflow since February 2020. While bond funds & ETFs have seen more material outflows, investors will capitulate and start exiting if the stock market goes down to 3500. The 3500 level is around 5% away from the current day’s level.

Goldman Sachs also indicated last week a familiar theme from earlier articles: the price ratio multiples are rapidly crumbling, as exemplified in the downward trend in the S&P 500’s forward multiples.

Furthermore, Goldman Sachs estimates that there will be no GDP growth in the US for the calendar year 2022 while 2023 might see a 1.1% increase.

With regard to the S&P 500, Goldman Sachs also had a similar assessment: the index is expected to end 2022 roughly 1.6% away from the current day’s level in a „soft landing“ scenario and at 3400 in the „hard landing“ scenario. Both scenarios see a recovery in 2023 which would still be far below highs seen earlier this year.

Researchers at Citi warned last week that the Eurozone, Brazil and Canada will be entering recessionary periods in Q4 or shortly thereafter.

The researchers, interestingly, estimate the U.S. to be entering a „recessionary period“ from Q3 of 2023 onwards, while Germany and UK are both indicated to already be in recession.

Also interesting is the conclusion that China isn’t in recession. While it’s entirely conceivable that the Chinese government will be loathe to declare it, estimates from its own Customs Bureau indicate exports to the U.S. (one of its largest trading partners) shrinking as consumption outlook diminishes. Infrastructure and exports are two very important pillars of the Chinese economy. However, it’s possible that there isn’t nearly enough reliable data right now for the researchers to make any prognostications about China.

Also, a report from Deutsche Bank last week indicates that its homeland Germany will likely be bearing the brunt of GDP shrinkage in the Eurozone in the next year.

The sampling of outlooks offered via the likes of Bank of America, Fidelity, Goldman Sachs, Citi and Deutsche Bank are neither a sea change from opinions offered in earlier months nor limited to these companies alone‘ most reports published by leading institutions have been grim for the past 2-3 months offered above. Given that the year is three-quarters done, the conclusions arrived at are getting more and more concrete. For investors continuing to buy into the idea of an upward swing in market valuations, the warning most suitable would simply be: „Caveat emptor!“

Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) offer substantial potential to gain magnified exposure with potential losses limited to only the invested amount and no further. Learn more about Exchange Traded Products providing exposure on either the upside or the downside to the S&P 500, the upside or the downside to the Nasdaq-100, and the upside or the downside to the German DAX.

Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.
Back to Market Insights

Education Series: Single-Stock ETPs

Introducing Our Single-Stock ETPs
Short and Leveraged ETPs Explained
Rebalancing and Compounding
A Built-in Airbag to Limit Losses
ETPs vs Leveraged Alternatives
Six Things To Know About Our ETPs

Authored by

Category: MARKET INSIGHTS

Learn more

Share this:

Related Posts

  • MARKET INSIGHTS

Gold Retreats But Rally is Not Over

Gold is in a healthy correction and higher price levels are likely by year end.
  • MARKET INSIGHTS

Gold Retreats But Rally is Not Over

Gold is in a healthy correction and higher price levels are likely by year end.
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Violeta Todorova
  • MARKET INSIGHTS

Gold Retreats But Rally is Not Over

Gold is in a healthy correction and higher price levels are likely by year end.
Gold

Gold Retreats But Rally is Not Over

Gold is in a healthy correction and higher price levels are likely by year end.
  • MARKET INSIGHTS
Read
Gold

Gold Retreats But Rally is Not Over

Gold is in a healthy correction and higher price levels are likely by year end.
Read
  • MARKET INSIGHTS

Copper Ready to Explode

Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
  • MARKET INSIGHTS

Copper Ready to Explode

Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Boyan Girginov
  • MARKET INSIGHTS

Copper Ready to Explode

Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Copper Rise

Copper Ready to Explode

Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
  • MARKET INSIGHTS
Read
Copper Rise

Copper Ready to Explode

Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Read
  • MARKET INSIGHTS

Q2 2024 Outlook: Rough Roads, Some Bulls

Q2 is poised for European stocks‘ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
  • MARKET INSIGHTS

Q2 2024 Outlook: Rough Roads, Some Bulls

Q2 is poised for European stocks‘ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Sandeep Rao
  • MARKET INSIGHTS

Q2 2024 Outlook: Rough Roads, Some Bulls

Q2 is poised for European stocks‘ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Icon- Market outlook

Q2 2024 Outlook: Rough Roads, Some Bulls

Q2 is poised for European stocks‘ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
  • MARKET INSIGHTS
Read
Icon- Market outlook

Q2 2024 Outlook: Rough Roads, Some Bulls

Q2 is poised for European stocks‘ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Read
  • MARKET INSIGHTS

S&P 500 Plunges on Rising Middle East Tension

Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
  • MARKET INSIGHTS

S&P 500 Plunges on Rising Middle East Tension

Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Violeta Todorova
  • MARKET INSIGHTS

S&P 500 Plunges on Rising Middle East Tension

Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
S&P 500

S&P 500 Plunges on Rising Middle East Tension

Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
  • MARKET INSIGHTS
Read
S&P 500

S&P 500 Plunges on Rising Middle East Tension

Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
Read
  • EDUCATION

What is an ETF? (Exchange Traded Fund)

What is an ETF? How does an ETF work? Key characteristics of ETFs.
  • EDUCATION

What is an ETF? (Exchange Traded Fund)

What is an ETF? How does an ETF work? Key characteristics of ETFs.
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Boyan Girginov
  • EDUCATION

What is an ETF? (Exchange Traded Fund)

What is an ETF? How does an ETF work? Key characteristics of ETFs.
What is an ETF_

What is an ETF? (Exchange Traded Fund)

What is an ETF? How does an ETF work? Key characteristics of ETFs.
  • EDUCATION
Read
What is an ETF_

What is an ETF? (Exchange Traded Fund)

What is an ETF? How does an ETF work? Key characteristics of ETFs.
Read
  • EDUCATION

Leverage Shares ETPs im Vergleich zu Hebel-ETPs

Leverage Shares ETPs im Vergleich zu Hebel-ETPs
  • EDUCATION

Leverage Shares ETPs im Vergleich zu Hebel-ETPs

Leverage Shares ETPs im Vergleich zu Hebel-ETPs
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Oktay Kavrak
  • EDUCATION

Leverage Shares ETPs im Vergleich zu Hebel-ETPs

Leverage Shares ETPs im Vergleich zu Hebel-ETPs
Icon- LS ETPs vs. Other ETPs

Leverage Shares ETPs im Vergleich zu Hebel-ETPs

Leverage Shares ETPs im Vergleich zu Hebel-ETPs
  • EDUCATION
Read
Icon- LS ETPs vs. Other ETPs

Leverage Shares ETPs im Vergleich zu Hebel-ETPs

Leverage Shares ETPs im Vergleich zu Hebel-ETPs
Read
  • EDUCATION

Handel mit ETPs in mehreren Währungen

Handel mit ETPs in mehreren Währungen
  • EDUCATION

Handel mit ETPs in mehreren Währungen

Handel mit ETPs in mehreren Währungen
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Pawel Uchman
  • EDUCATION

Handel mit ETPs in mehreren Währungen

Handel mit ETPs in mehreren Währungen
Icon- Leverage Shares ETPs

Handel mit ETPs in mehreren Währungen

Handel mit ETPs in mehreren Währungen
  • EDUCATION
Read
Icon- Leverage Shares ETPs

Handel mit ETPs in mehreren Währungen

Handel mit ETPs in mehreren Währungen
Read
  • MARKET INSIGHTS

Gold Retreats But Rally is Not Over

Gold is in a healthy correction and higher price levels are likely by year end.
  • MARKET INSIGHTS

Gold Retreats But Rally is Not Over

Gold is in a healthy correction and higher price levels are likely by year end.
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Violeta Todorova
  • MARKET INSIGHTS

Gold Retreats But Rally is Not Over

Gold is in a healthy correction and higher price levels are likely by year end.
Gold

Gold Retreats But Rally is Not Over

Gold is in a healthy correction and higher price levels are likely by year end.
  • MARKET INSIGHTS
Read
Gold

Gold Retreats But Rally is Not Over

Gold is in a healthy correction and higher price levels are likely by year end.
Read
  • MARKET INSIGHTS

Copper Ready to Explode

Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
  • MARKET INSIGHTS

Copper Ready to Explode

Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Boyan Girginov
  • MARKET INSIGHTS

Copper Ready to Explode

Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Copper Rise

Copper Ready to Explode

Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
  • MARKET INSIGHTS
Read
Copper Rise

Copper Ready to Explode

Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Read
  • MARKET INSIGHTS

Q2 2024 Outlook: Rough Roads, Some Bulls

Q2 is poised for European stocks‘ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
  • MARKET INSIGHTS

Q2 2024 Outlook: Rough Roads, Some Bulls

Q2 is poised for European stocks‘ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Sandeep Rao
  • MARKET INSIGHTS

Q2 2024 Outlook: Rough Roads, Some Bulls

Q2 is poised for European stocks‘ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Icon- Market outlook

Q2 2024 Outlook: Rough Roads, Some Bulls

Q2 is poised for European stocks‘ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
  • MARKET INSIGHTS
Read
Icon- Market outlook

Q2 2024 Outlook: Rough Roads, Some Bulls

Q2 is poised for European stocks‘ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Read
  • MARKET INSIGHTS

S&P 500 Plunges on Rising Middle East Tension

Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
  • MARKET INSIGHTS

S&P 500 Plunges on Rising Middle East Tension

Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Violeta Todorova
  • MARKET INSIGHTS

S&P 500 Plunges on Rising Middle East Tension

Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
S&P 500

S&P 500 Plunges on Rising Middle East Tension

Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
  • MARKET INSIGHTS
Read
S&P 500

S&P 500 Plunges on Rising Middle East Tension

Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
Read

In Verbindung bleiben

Wenn Sie sich hier anmelden, stimmen Sie unserer Datenschutzrichtlinie zu und erhalten unsere Newsletter. Sie können sich jederzeit abmelden, indem Sie dem Link am Ende jedes Newsletters folgen.

Unsere ETPs

Company

Trading Hub

Legal

Youtube Linkedin Instagram Telegram
Der Handel mit ETPs ist möglicherweise nicht für alle Arten von Anlegern geeignet, da sie ein hohes Maß an Risiko. Anleger können ihre gesamte Anfangsinvestition verlieren und sollten nur mit Geld spekulieren, welches sie sich leisten können zu verlieren. Änderungen der Wechselkurse können auch dazu führen, dass ihre Investition verloren geht im Wert steigend oder fallend. Steuergesetze können Änderungen unterliegen. Anleger sollten sicherstellen, dass sie die damit verbundenen Risiken vollständig verstehen. Im Zweifelsfall sollten Anleger eine unabhängige Finanzberatung einholen. Anleger sollten den entsprechenden Abschnitt mit der Überschrift „Risikofaktoren“ beachten. Im Prospekt sindweitere Einzelheiten zu diesen und anderen Risiken aufgelistet, die mit einer Anlage in die verbunden sind vom Emittenten angebotene Wertpapiere.
© Leverage Shares 2024

Sandeep Rao

Research
Linkedin

Sandeep joined Leverage Shares in September 2020. He leads research on existing and new product lines, asset classes, and strategies, with special emphasis on analysis of recent events and developments.

Sandeep has longstanding experience with financial markets. Starting with a Chicago-based hedge fund as a financial engineer, his career has spanned a variety of domains and organizations over a course of 8 years – from Barclays Capital’s Prime Services Division to (most recently) Nasdaq’s Index Research Team.

Sandeep holds an M.S. in Finance as well as an MBA from Illinois Institute of Technology Chicago.

See Top Performers
Contact a representative
In the press
Contacts
How to Invest
Linkedin

Violeta Todorova

Senior Research

Violeta trat Leverage Shares in September 2022 bei. Sie ist verantwortlich für die Durchführung technischer Analysen, Makro- und Aktienmarktforschung, wodurch sie wertvolle Erkenntnisse bereitstellt, um die Gestaltung von Anlagestrategien für Kunden zu unterstützen.

Bevor sie LS beitrat hat Violeta bei einigen Hochprofil – Investitionsfirmen in Australien gearbeitet wie Tollhurst und Morgans Financial, wo sie die letzten 12 Jahre verbracht hat.

Violeta ist eine zertifizierte Markttechnikerin von der Vereinigung der technischen Analysten in Australien und sie hat Postgraduierten-Diplom in Angewandten Finanzen und Investitionen von Kaplan Professional (FINSIA), Australien, wo sie jahrelang Dozentin war.

Linkedin

Julian Manoilov

Marketing Lead

Julian Manoilov kam 2018 im Zuge der Expansion des Unternehmens in Osteuropa zu Leverage Shares. Er ist für Online-Inhalte und die Steigerung der Markenbekanntheit verantwortlich.

Auf wissenschaftlicher Ebene befasst sich Herr Manoilov mit Wirtschaft, Psychologie, Soziologie, europäischer Politik und Linguistik. Durch eigene unternehmerische Tätigkeit hat er Erfahrung in der Geschäftsentwicklung und im Marketing gesammelt.

Herr Manoilov sieht Leverage Shares als innovatives Unternehmen auf den Gebieten Finanzen und Fintech. Seine Arbeit zielt darauf ab, die nächsten großen Neuigkeiten an Investoren in Großbritannien und im übrigen Europa weiterzugeben.

Linkedin

Oktay Kavrak

Head of Communications and Strategy

Oktay Kavrak kam Ende 2019 zu Leverage Shares. Er ist für das Unternehmenswachstum durch Pflege wichtiger Geschäftsbeziehungen und für die Entwicklung des Vertriebs in den englischsprachigen Märkten verantwortlich.

Vor seinem Wechsel zu Leverage Shares war Herr Kavrak für die UniCredit tätig, wo er als Corporate Relationship Manager multinationale Unternehmen betreute. Zuvor arbeitete er in den Bereichen Unternehmensfinanzierung und Fondsverwaltung u. a. für IBM Bulgaria und DeGiro/FundShare.

Herr Kavrak besitzt einen Bachelor-Abschluss in Finanz- und Rechnungswesen sowie einen postgradualen Abschluss in Betriebswirtschaft des Babson College. Zudem ist er Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA).

Linkedin