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A Blow Off Top is in the Making

Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.

Websim is the retail division of Intermonte, the primary intermediary of the Italian stock exchange for institutional investors. Leverage Shares often features in its speculative analysis based on macros/fundamentals. However, the information is published in Italian. To provide better information for our non-Italian investors, we bring to you a quick translation of the analysis they present to Italian retail investors. To ensure rapid delivery, text in the charts will not be translated. The views expressed here are of Websim. Leverage Shares in no way endorses these views. If you are unsure about the suitability of an investment, please seek financial advice. View the original at

Tesla stock has experienced a monstrous run from its January’s low of $101.81 to an intra-day high of $235.23 on Thursday. The rally has been propelled by a series of significant developments in the company, lifting the share price by 130% in the short span of five months. The latest rally from the April low alone has advanced 55%, on rumours Tesla is negotiating the construction of a new, massive €4.5 billion ($4.8 billion) Gigafactory in the metro area of Valencia, Spain.

A speculation swirls that France is in the Gigafactory target list too before Elon Musk even headed to Paris. While Musk has recently met with the French president saying that he hopes to make a major investment in the country, with his long to-do list, so far, he is just scheduled to attend the Vivatech conference in Paris next week.

Source: Tradingview

The latest rally has pushed the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) into extremely overbought territory reaching a reading of 83% on Thursday. The RSI index has reached higher levels on just four occasions since Tesla listed, which were followed by sharp and significant declines.

The strongly overbought momentum conditions send an urgent warning to short-term traders as the rubber band effect is likely to kick in anytime from now. For the highly volatile share price this means that once a short-term top is formed, a decline in excess of 10% could be seen within days. Such overbought readings are associated with blow off tops and provide impeccable timing for traders.

Source: Tradingview

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Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.

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Sandeep joined Leverage Shares in September 2020. He leads research on existing and new product lines, asset classes, and strategies, with special emphasis on analysis of recent events and developments.

Sandeep has longstanding experience with financial markets. Starting with a Chicago-based hedge fund as a financial engineer, his career has spanned a variety of domains and organizations over a course of 8 years – from Barclays Capital’s Prime Services Division to (most recently) Nasdaq’s Index Research Team.

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Julian Manoilov

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Julian joined Leverage Shares in 2018 as part of the company’s primary expansion in Eastern Europe. He is responsible for web content and raising brand awareness.

Julian has been academically involved with economics, psychology, sociology, European politics & linguistics. He has experience in business development and marketing through business ventures of his own.

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Violeta Todorova

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Violeta joined Leverage Shares in September 2022. She is responsible for conducting technical analysis, macro and equity research, providing valuable insights to help shape investment strategies for clients.

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