fbpx

Are Markets Recovering? A Closer Look

Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.

Websim is the retail division of Intermonte, the primary intermediary of the Italian stock exchange for institutional investors. Leverage Shares often features in its speculative analysis based on macros/fundamentals. However, the information is published in Italian. To provide better information for our non-Italian investors, we bring to you a quick translation of the analysis they present to Italian retail investors. To ensure rapid delivery, text in the charts will not be translated. The views expressed here are of Websim. Leverage Shares in no way endorses these views. If you are unsure about the suitability of an investment, please seek financial advice. View the original at

News about market movements in financial publications have been rather positive in the year so far. This might lead retail investors to believe that the risk factors for the downside have decreased and its the return of the bull market that lasted nearly 5 years before the pandemic became global (and for a short while after movement restrictions were lifted in kay areas of the Western Hemisphere). However, an enthusiastic return to bullish estimations might be premature.

Mr. Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, estimated that in the year till date, margins seem to be bearing the brunt of the earnings estimate downgrades, thus falling from 13.7% to 12.2%. Even present-day valuations are being deemed as being high by historical standards, and well above the pre-COVID peak over the past fifteen years.

Mr. Timmer further elucidated that while US earnings estimates are coming down hard, the rest of the world seems to be stabilizing. In year-over-year change in forward estimates, Emerging Markets (EM) stocks had earlier been at the bottom of the pack and are now flattening out.

This is by no means is a minority opinion: as the article from nearly two weeks ago highlighted, most leading analysts posit that India will lead the pack of EM instruments that will do well in this year.

The deflation of US stock valuation is quite an interesting turn of events. Historically, US equities have been the most overvalued stocks in the world, which was achieved in no small part by strong “brand recall” among investors worldwide due to the large volumes of media output about them. Charles Schwab estimates that the projected returns over the next ten years is showing a bearish tendency with at least some signs of a deflation in the 10-year forecast in the estimates made last year versus the current.

Belying any expectations of a recovery have been the downsizing actions of the US economy. New data gives some insight into why the unemployment numbers published don’t seem to add up relative to other economic indicators: small businesses have been holding up the labour market by hiring 3.67 million more people than have been laid off or who quit since February 2020.

However, unlike larger businesses, small businesses are far more susceptible to rising costs and inflationary cycles. AllianceBernstein estimates that inflationary pressure will likely remain high at least for the current quarter, with the US GDP showing nearly no growth and US monetary policy expected to remain tight throughout the year.

China, too, is estimated to have a drop in consumption and investments relative to historical trends – although it won’t be quite as drastic as seen in the earlier part of 2022.

So what explains the mildly positive market valuation in the year so far? Well, outside of the little-understood “January Effect” (which was discussed last week), there is at least one other factor: money market fund inflows. Investors have added nearly $135 billion to global money-market funds (MMFs) in the four weeks between mid-December 2022 till mid-January of this year, estimated to have been the best period for money-market funds since the 4-week period that ended in May 2020.

Throughout 2022, retail investors abandoned U.S. equity markets and cashed out rather than continue to hold sky-high convictions in popular stocks. As 2023 dawned, however, the MMF data indicates the quiet resurgence of the institutional professional reaffirming their dominance in determining market investment trajectories. Given that MMFs are required to create positions in accordance with clients investing into their funds, it stands to reason that this purchasing activity imparted some momentum to the U.S. equity market, despite the neutral-to-bearish macroeconomic outlook.

Assets sitting in money-market funds hit a record $5.18 trillion in December, surpassing the previous high of $5.16 trillion in May 2020. The average return on U.S. money-market funds this month (until the 23rd of January) is 4.12%, the highest yield since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.

Just as with the previous week’s article, the base takeaway remains unchanged: current conditions seem to be optimal for realizing short-term profits from tactical trading, which Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) are perfectly poised to deliver at very economical and scalable costs. Learn more about Exchange Traded Products that provide magnified exposure on either the upside or the downside of major markets, sectors and investor-favourite stocks here.

Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.

Related Posts

Gold is in a healthy correction and higher price levels are likely by year end.
Gold is in a healthy correction and higher price levels are likely by year end.
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Violeta Todorova
Gold is in a healthy correction and higher price levels are likely by year end.
Gold is in a healthy correction and higher price levels are likely by year end.
Gold is in a healthy correction and higher price levels are likely by year end.
Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Boyan Girginov
Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Q2 is poised for European stocks’ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Q2 is poised for European stocks’ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Sandeep Rao
Q2 is poised for European stocks’ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Q2 is poised for European stocks’ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Q2 is poised for European stocks’ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Violeta Todorova
Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
What is an ETF? How does an ETF work? Key characteristics of ETFs.
What is an ETF? How does an ETF work? Key characteristics of ETFs.
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Boyan Girginov
What is an ETF? How does an ETF work? Key characteristics of ETFs.
What is an ETF? How does an ETF work? Key characteristics of ETFs.
What is an ETF? How does an ETF work? Key characteristics of ETFs.
Leverage Shares ETPs vs Other Leveraged ETPs
Leverage Shares ETPs vs Other Leveraged ETPs
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Oktay Kavrak
Leverage Shares ETPs vs Other Leveraged ETPs
Leverage Shares ETPs vs Other Leveraged ETPs
Leverage Shares ETPs vs Other Leveraged ETPs
How Do Leverage Shares ETPs Trade in Multiple Currencies
How Do Leverage Shares ETPs Trade in Multiple Currencies
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Pawel Uchman
How Do Leverage Shares ETPs Trade in Multiple Currencies
How Do Leverage Shares ETPs Trade in Multiple Currencies
How Do Leverage Shares ETPs Trade in Multiple Currencies
ETF vs ETP: What they are and how do they differ?
ETF vs ETP: What they are and how do they differ?
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Violeta Todorova
ETF vs ETP: What they are and how do they differ?
ETF vs ETP: What they are and how do they differ?
ETF vs ETP: What they are and how do they differ?
Gold is in a healthy correction and higher price levels are likely by year end.
Gold is in a healthy correction and higher price levels are likely by year end.
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Violeta Todorova
Gold is in a healthy correction and higher price levels are likely by year end.
Gold is in a healthy correction and higher price levels are likely by year end.
Gold is in a healthy correction and higher price levels are likely by year end.
Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Boyan Girginov
Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Q2 is poised for European stocks’ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Q2 is poised for European stocks’ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Sandeep Rao
Q2 is poised for European stocks’ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Q2 is poised for European stocks’ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Q2 is poised for European stocks’ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Violeta Todorova
Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.

Sandeep Rao

Research

Sandeep joined Leverage Shares in September 2020. He leads research on existing and new product lines, asset classes, and strategies, with special emphasis on analysis of recent events and developments.

Sandeep has longstanding experience with financial markets. Starting with a Chicago-based hedge fund as a financial engineer, his career has spanned a variety of domains and organizations over a course of 8 years – from Barclays Capital’s Prime Services Division to (most recently) Nasdaq’s Index Research Team.

Sandeep holds an M.S. in Finance as well as an MBA from Illinois Institute of Technology Chicago.

Julian Manoilov

Marketing Lead

Julian joined Leverage Shares in 2018 as part of the company’s primary expansion in Eastern Europe. He is responsible for web content and raising brand awareness.

Julian has been academically involved with economics, psychology, sociology, European politics & linguistics. He has experience in business development and marketing through business ventures of his own.

For Julian, Leverage Shares is an innovator in the field of finance & fintech, and he always looks forward with excitement to share the next big news with investors in the UK & Europe.

Violeta Todorova

Senior Research

Violeta joined Leverage Shares in September 2022. She is responsible for conducting technical analysis, macro and equity research, providing valuable insights to help shape investment strategies for clients.

Prior to joining LS, Violeta worked at several high-profile investment firms in Australia, such as Tollhurst and Morgans Financial where she spent the past 12 years of her career.

Violeta is a certified market technician from the Australian Technical Analysts Association and holds a Post Graduate Diploma of Applied Finance and Investment from Kaplan Professional (FINSIA), Australia, where she was a lecturer for a number of years.

Oktay Kavrak

Head of Communications and Strategy

Oktay joined Leverage Shares in late 2019. He is responsible for driving business growth by maintaining key relationships and developing sales activity across English-speaking markets.

He joined Leverage Shares from UniCredit, where he was a corporate relationship manager for multinationals. His previous experience is in corporate finance and fund administration at firms like IBM Bulgaria and DeGiro / FundShare.

Oktay holds a BA in Finance & Accounting and a post-graduate certificate in Entrepreneurship from Babson College. He is also a CFA charterholder.