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Inflation, the Fed and Portfolio Positioning

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Websim is the retail division of Intermonte, the primary intermediary of the Italian stock exchange for institutional investors. Leverage Shares often features in its speculative analysis based on macros/fundamentals. However, the information is published in Italian. To provide better information for our non-Italian investors, we bring to you a quick translation of the analysis they present to Italian retail investors. To ensure rapid delivery, text in the charts will not be translated. The views expressed here are of Websim. Leverage Shares in no way endorses these views. If you are unsure about the suitability of an investment, please seek financial advice. View the original at
  • Fed remains hawkish with 6th rate hike this year
  • End of the tightening cycle in sight?
  • Which sectors outperform the market at this stage

The lift-off in rates continues

Source: Bloomberg. Federal Funds Target Rate – Upper Bound (FDTR Index)

Last week the Fed raised rates by a 4th consecutive 75 bps rate, something widely expected by investors given that inflation is running at multi-decade highs. Markets were not surprised and Fed Chair Jerome Powell said “It is very premature, in my view, to think about or be talking about pausing our rate hikes” adding that he did not believe the Fed had yet “overtightened,” leaving the door wide open for the pace of rate hikes to remain aggressive.

Worried Investors

Despite the cautionary tone by Powell, investors remain anxious as the Fed tends to lift rates until something in the markets goes awry. During the last 11 hiking cycles, 8 of them ended in a recession – ample evidence that the central bank increases to the point where something in the market snaps and the economy breaks. The main reason for that (terrible) track record is central banks’ forward guidance is based on lagging economic indicators such as unemployment and core inflation. That is why monetary policy works with a long lag: last week’s hikes won’t affect inflation tomorrow, but they could change it 9 to 12 months from now.

Source: Bloomberg. Federal Funds Target Rate – Upper Bound (FDTR Index)

The first of the rate hikes was just 8 months ago, so the effects are now starting to emerge and Consumer Price Index (CPI) may continue to fall. Moreover, another major driver of inflation money supply (M2) has fallen sharply (the yellow line in the graph above) which should help further ease inflationary pressures.

It seems likely that the Fed may reduce the size of its rate hikes beginning in December, but it will likely depend on how the inflation outlook evolves. At this point inflation expectations seems to be rolling over judging by the 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS).

All data points to inflation moderation, possibly signaling the end of the tightening cycle. Let’s not forget that policymakers have already responded with the most aggressive tightening campaign in 4 decades. Terminal rates have probably reached their ceiling at around 5.0 – 5.3%. Therefore, the Fed could gradually slow its pace of tightening and pause over the next six months as inflation continues to decline.

Moving from the late cycle towards the recessionary phase of this cycle here are some possible market outperformers.

Precious metals (Gold, Silver)– classical inflation hedge, historically less volatile, potential diversification, outperforms fiat money.

Health care – safe-haven investment with a history of stable revenue and earnings, very recession resilient.

Energy – the energy sector has reported massive profits this year, thanks to geopolitical events that lead to a surge in fuel prices.

Source: Fidelity

Investors looking to gain exposure to the sectors mentioned above might consider:
Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.

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