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Markets Are Searching for Direction

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Websim is the retail division of Intermonte, the primary intermediary of the Italian stock exchange for institutional investors. Leverage Shares often features in its speculative analysis based on macros/fundamentals. However, the information is published in Italian. To provide better information for our non-Italian investors, we bring to you a quick translation of the analysis they present to Italian retail investors. To ensure rapid delivery, text in the charts will not be translated. The views expressed here are of Websim. Leverage Shares in no way endorses these views. If you are unsure about the suitability of an investment, please seek financial advice. View the original at

Following the January Nonfarm Payroll report, which showed a net gain of 517K jobs and the unemployment rate dropping to a 53-year low of 3.4%, investors feared that the hotter-than-expected jobs report would reignite a hawkish twist from policymakers.

In a highly anticipated appearance at an event in Washington, D.C. on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell largely repeated its prior remarks he delivered as part of the last Fed’s policy announcement. He reiterated that the Fed would need more rate hikes and hold the policy at restrictive levels for a period of time as the battle against inflation is likely to be long.

While he also admitted that the jobs report was stronger than anyone anticipated, reinforcing his view that it will take a long time to ease inflation to the Fed’s target of 2%. His comments that a renewed increase in immigration after a sharp slowdown earlier in the pandemic seems to be alleviating the labor shortage, calmed the market and investors were relieved from the fact that he didn’t tilt his stance and take an aggressively hawkish turn.

Powell’s comments on Tuesday follow his press conference last week after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis point, where he said that the central bank believes it’s making solid progress in bringing down inflation.

Markets are now pricing in 100% probability that the Fed will hike rates by 25 basis point on the 22nd of March and 76% odds for another 25 basis point increase on the 3rd of May. That would bring the federal funds rate to a 5%-5.25% range, which December Fed projections indicated would be the likely peak of the cycle.

After Friday’s Nonfarm Payroll report Wall Street sees around 40% odds that the Fed might make one additional rate hike, up from 3.6% just a week ago. However, markets still see more than 60% chance that the Fed will cut its key rate to 4.75%-5% by year’s end.

Source: Tradingview

Equity markets reflect the economic and geopolitical landscape, which remains highly uncertain at present. The market is trying to discount two different scenarios, both of which are driven by what the Fed is going to do. The two scenarios are if the U.S. economy falls into a recession or not, which is highly dependent on how quickly the Fed nears the end of its rate hiking cycle. However, according to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen the probability of a U.S. recession this year is low as job growth remains strong and unemployment is low.

After pulling back on Friday and Monday, following the latest jobs report shock, equity markets found its footing on Tuesday and rebounded strongly as traders parsed the latest remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

While the current rally could extend further, the index is facing a band of overhead resistance between 4,200 and 4,320 where the bulls might take a more cautious approach. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is very close to key support levels suggesting that the rally may not run for much longer and a pull back could be seen soon.

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Sandeep joined Leverage Shares in September 2020. He leads research on existing and new product lines, asset classes, and strategies, with special emphasis on analysis of recent events and developments.

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Julian Manoilov

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Julian joined Leverage Shares in 2018 as part of the company’s primary expansion in Eastern Europe. He is responsible for web content and raising brand awareness.

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