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Bonds comeback

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In the past 50 years, negative bond returns have been infrequent and relatively small. Out of the previous 47 calendar years, negative returns only occurred in 5 instances, and the maximum decline was around -5%. However, this trend was shattered last year when the bond market experienced its worst performance since the French Revolution, with a jaw-dropping decline of 13%. Following this challenging period for bond traders, it is likely that the market will rebound in 2023. Fixed-income investments are expected to generate returns closer to their historical average of approximately 6.6%. This outlook is auspicious if the highly probable scenario of rate cuts materializes this year.

End of the hiking cycle

The Federal Reserve implemented an aggressive interest rate policy, leading to a cumulative increase of 5.00% in the Fed funds rate from March 2022 to May 2023, aimed at controlling inflation. As we approach the end of the hiking cycle, the most recent data on inflation indicates a consistent slowdown for the past ten months. This can be attributed to the delayed impact of reducing the money supply and raising interest rates, which has started to affect various inflation indicators. In June 2022, the year-over-year inflation reached its peak at 9.1%. However, it has since declined to 4.9%, which is still significantly higher than the Federal Reserve’s target inflation rate of 2% annually. Despite this, following its latest meeting, the central bank hinted at a possible pause in rate hikes, stating that it will closely monitor incoming information and assess its implications for monetary policy.

What happens to bonds if interest rates drop?

When interest rates fall, bond prices typically rise, and there may be an opportunity to profit if an investor sells the bond before maturity. For instance, if rates drop 1%, previously issued bonds are more attractive than current ones, as debt issuers will take full advantage of the now lower rates, so investors would be willing to pay a premium — above the par value — for those bonds. If an investor sells when the bond is trading at a premium, they can profit from the capital appreciation and the income earned up to that point on the bond.

Bond’s comeback

Let’s look at the long end of the yield curve or the “TLT” (20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF); given the incredible drop over the last two years, bottoming at the -2 standard deviations line, it still looks undervalued, trading over one standard deviation, below its mean value of 126.

The bond market expects rate cuts based on the 2-year treasury securities, which have been reliable predictors of Fed rate movements since the mid-90s. This anticipation is driven by the possibility of a recession or a hard landing triggered by a credit event indicated by the inverted yield curve. As the hiking cycle nears its end, a pause will likely be followed by rate cuts. The banking system faces high contagion risks, and the economy cannot sustain the current rate trajectory. Therefore, rate cuts are seen as necessary to address these concerns and support stability.

Bonds and rate cuts

Market participants’ highly anticipated rate cuts will be positive for fixed income once they materialize. The long end of the yield curve is where investors want to be. In the past, 30-year treasuries outperformed 90% of the time, averaging over 7% returns in the 3 and 6 months post-last rate hikes.

Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.

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Violeta Todorova

Senior Research

Violeta se unió a Leverage Shares en septiembre de 2022. Ella gestiona la realización de análisis técnicos, investigación macroeconómica y de acciones, y ofrece información valiosa que ayuda a la definición de estrategias de inversión para los clientes.

Antes de unirse a LS, Violeta trabajó en varias empresas de inversión de alto perfil en Australia, como Tollhurst y Morgans Financial, donde pasó los últimos 12 años de su carrera.

Violeta es una técnica de mercado certificada de la Asociación Australiana de Analistas Técnicos y tiene un Diploma de Postgrado en Finanzas e Inversiones Aplicadas de Kaplan Professional (FINSIA), Australia, donde fue profesora durante varios años.

Julian Manoilov

Marketing Lead
Julián se unió a Leverage Shares en 2018 como parte de la principal expansión de la compañía en Europa del Este. Él es responsable de diseñar estrategias de marketing y promover el conocimiento de la marca.

Oktay Kavrak

Head of Communications and Strategy

Oktay se incorporó en Laverage Shares a fines de 2019. Él es responsable de impulsar el crecimiento del negocio al mantener relaciones clave y desarrollar la actividad de ventas en los mercados de habla inglesa.

Él vino de UniCredit, donde fue gerente de relaciones corporativas para empresas multinacionales. Su experiencia previa es en finanzas corporativas y administración de fondos en empresas como IBM Bulgaria y DeGiro / FundShare.

Oktay tiene una licenciatura en Finanzas y Contabilidad y un certificado de posgrado en formación empresarial de Babson College. También es titular de una certificado CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst).

Sandeep Rao

Investigación

Sandeep se unió a Leverage Shares en septiembre de 2020. Está a cargo de la investigación de líneas de productos existentes y nuevas, clases de activos y estrategias, con un enfoque particular en el análisis de eventos y desarrollos recientes.

Sandeep tiene una larga experiencia en los mercados financieros. Comenzó en un hedge fund con sede en Chicago como ingeniero financiero, su carrera abarcó varios dominios y organizaciones durante un período de 8 años, desde la División de Prime Services de Barclays Capital hasta (más recientemente) el Equipo Index Research de Nasdaq.

Sandeep tiene una maestría en Finanzas, así como un MBA del Illinois Institute of Technology de Chicago.

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