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Capitalising on a Shift in Federal Reserve Policy

Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is an exchange-traded fund. The Fund seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of United States Treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than 20 years. These bonds are issued by the U.S. government to fund its long-term borrowing needs. The index also includes fixed-rate bonds, inflation-protected securities (TIPS), and Separate Trading of Registered Interest and Principal Securities (STRIPS).

The fund reflects and has inverse relationship with long-dated U.S. interest rates; therefore, it rises when rates fall and declines when rates increase. The ETF pays a monthly dividend, which was last paid on the 7 th of June 2023 amounting to $0.273. This represents a $3.28 dividend on an annualized basis and a dividend yield of 3.16%. TLT is highly liquid, it has $39.35 billion in assets under management and trades an average of 23.82 million shares daily, charging a 0.15% expense ratio.

As an ETF, TLT allows investors to gain exposure to a diversified portfolio of long-term Treasury bonds by purchasing shares on a stock exchange. The fund seeks to provide investors with returns that correspond to the performance of the underlying index, minus fees and expenses.

While the Fed may potentially implement one or two more rate hikes by year-end, if there is not significant deterioration in economic data, we are nearing the peak of interest rates, and a shift in Federal Reserve policy is coming. Investing in TLT can be advantageous for several reasons:

Price appreciation: When interest rates decline, the value of U.S. Treasury bonds held by TLT, tends to rise.

Income generation: TLT primarily invests in long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, which generally offer higher yields than shorter-term bonds.

Safe-haven investment: U.S. Treasury bonds are considered safe-haven assets, especially during uncertain economic conditions or periods of market volatility.

It’s important to note that investing in TLT, like any investment, involves risks. If interest rates rise instead of falling, the value of TLT and its bond holdings may decline.

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Source: TradingView

TLT had a rough 2022, dropping 40% from a high of $155.12 to a low of $91.85 as the Federal Reserve aggressively increased the short-term fed funds rate last year, and quantitative tightening pushed interest rates higher further out.

It appears TLT have bottomed at $91.85 in October 2022 as the price behaviour over the past seven months shows a number of positive developments. In December 2022 the Relative Strength Index indicator moved into a bull market range which suggests that the prior down trend is likely to reverse course soon.

The sequence of lower lows and lower highs has been broken for the first time since December 2021 showing that the buyers are stepping in. A clear trading range has been established since the onset of the year with the price fluctuating between $98.88 and $109.68. A subsequent break above resistance of $109.68 appears to be highly likely given the improvement in the momentum conditions which will confirm that a new bull market has started. The potential upside price target based on the breakout is in the $120.00 – $125.00 range.

Bond exchange-traded products (ETPs) offer investors diversification, accessibility, transparency, income generation, liquidity, and cost efficiency. These benefits make bond ETPs an attractive option for investors looking to gain exposure to a diversified portfolio of bonds while enjoying the advantages of listed and tradable investment vehicles.

Active traders looking for magnified exposure to iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF may consider our 5x Long 20+ Year Treasury Bond or -5x Short 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETPs.

Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.

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Violeta Todorova

Senior Research

Violeta se unió a Leverage Shares en septiembre de 2022. Ella gestiona la realización de análisis técnicos, investigación macroeconómica y de acciones, y ofrece información valiosa que ayuda a la definición de estrategias de inversión para los clientes.

Antes de unirse a LS, Violeta trabajó en varias empresas de inversión de alto perfil en Australia, como Tollhurst y Morgans Financial, donde pasó los últimos 12 años de su carrera.

Violeta es una técnica de mercado certificada de la Asociación Australiana de Analistas Técnicos y tiene un Diploma de Postgrado en Finanzas e Inversiones Aplicadas de Kaplan Professional (FINSIA), Australia, donde fue profesora durante varios años.

Julian Manoilov

Marketing Lead
Julián se unió a Leverage Shares en 2018 como parte de la principal expansión de la compañía en Europa del Este. Él es responsable de diseñar estrategias de marketing y promover el conocimiento de la marca.

Oktay Kavrak

Head of Communications and Strategy

Oktay se incorporó en Laverage Shares a fines de 2019. Él es responsable de impulsar el crecimiento del negocio al mantener relaciones clave y desarrollar la actividad de ventas en los mercados de habla inglesa.

Él vino de UniCredit, donde fue gerente de relaciones corporativas para empresas multinacionales. Su experiencia previa es en finanzas corporativas y administración de fondos en empresas como IBM Bulgaria y DeGiro / FundShare.

Oktay tiene una licenciatura en Finanzas y Contabilidad y un certificado de posgrado en formación empresarial de Babson College. También es titular de una certificado CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst).

Sandeep Rao

Investigación

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Sandeep tiene una larga experiencia en los mercados financieros. Comenzó en un hedge fund con sede en Chicago como ingeniero financiero, su carrera abarcó varios dominios y organizaciones durante un período de 8 años, desde la División de Prime Services de Barclays Capital hasta (más recientemente) el Equipo Index Research de Nasdaq.

Sandeep tiene una maestría en Finanzas, así como un MBA del Illinois Institute of Technology de Chicago.

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