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Equities into Bear Market's Clatches

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U.S. equities continued to slide toward the end of the year, and it appears increasingly unlikely that the stock market would be able to mount a successful rally to build momentum into 2023. The NASDAQ 100 index lead the market downfall during the holiday-shortened trading week and is on pace for its worst decline for the year since the Global Financial Crisis, amid growing concern about a recession in 2023 and surging COVID-19 cases in China.

With light news flows this week, financial markets were choppy and traded on low volumes as return from the Christmas break was muted with investors extending celebrations into the new year. Traders are wary about a possible end-of-year recovery and look to farewell a dismal year for the stock market and prepare for more volatility in 2023.

Economic data this week showed that house prices aren’t falling further, which has the potential to give the Fed additional ammunition in its campaign of monetary policy tightening and could in turn serve to limit upside potential for stocks in the coming months.

Wall Street’s main indexes rebounded strongly on Thursday, however the NASDAQ 100 index is still trading near its 2022 low, as investors grappled with mixed economic data, surging COVID-19 cases in China, and geopolitical tensions heading into 2023.

The tech index was supported by a fall in Treasury yields and economic data showing the labour market is slowing, although it is possible that after heavy tax-loss selling last week, investors were looking for bargains. Continuing jobless claims came slightly ahead of economist’s expectations; however, the labor market remains very tight as unemployment claims are rising from historically low levels and it is likely to take a bit of time before we see deterioration.

Source: Tradingview

With one trading day left in 2022, the stock market is on track for its worst year since 2008. The NASDAQ 100 has been the worst performer among the three main U.S. indices, losing nearly 34% this year, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 are on track to lose over 9% and almost 20%, respectively.

The latest NASDAQ 100 underperformance was driven by more than 31% drop in Tesla Inc over the past two weeks as the electric vehicle maker would continue a weeklong production pause at its Shanghai facility.

Every time the tech heavy index has rallied in 2022, it faced strong selling pressure, amid the highest interest rates over the past 15 years, which are the main culprit for the underperformance of the rate sensitive index. The latest slump is likely to get worse before it gets better, and even as the Fed’s battle with inflation is showing success, as we see signs that inflation has peaked, it will come at the price of a recession next year.

No recession has been more predicted than the one that still hasn’t occurred yet, with number of economists expecting the recession will hit the U.S. economy in the first half of next year, with inflation remaining top risk factor for the stock market in 2023. While its hard to predict if the U.S. economy will face a soft or hard landing in 2023, our baseline scenario for fresh lows next year remains unchanged.

Active traders looking for magnified exposure to U.S. equity indices could consider our 3x Long US Tech100 and -3x Short US Tech100 ETPs.

Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.

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Violeta Todorova

Senior Research

Violeta se unió a Leverage Shares en septiembre de 2022. Ella gestiona la realización de análisis técnicos, investigación macroeconómica y de acciones, y ofrece información valiosa que ayuda a la definición de estrategias de inversión para los clientes.

Antes de unirse a LS, Violeta trabajó en varias empresas de inversión de alto perfil en Australia, como Tollhurst y Morgans Financial, donde pasó los últimos 12 años de su carrera.

Violeta es una técnica de mercado certificada de la Asociación Australiana de Analistas Técnicos y tiene un Diploma de Postgrado en Finanzas e Inversiones Aplicadas de Kaplan Professional (FINSIA), Australia, donde fue profesora durante varios años.

Julian Manoilov

Marketing Lead
Julián se unió a Leverage Shares en 2018 como parte de la principal expansión de la compañía en Europa del Este. Él es responsable de diseñar estrategias de marketing y promover el conocimiento de la marca.

Oktay Kavrak

Head of Communications and Strategy

Oktay se incorporó en Laverage Shares a fines de 2019. Él es responsable de impulsar el crecimiento del negocio al mantener relaciones clave y desarrollar la actividad de ventas en los mercados de habla inglesa.

Él vino de UniCredit, donde fue gerente de relaciones corporativas para empresas multinacionales. Su experiencia previa es en finanzas corporativas y administración de fondos en empresas como IBM Bulgaria y DeGiro / FundShare.

Oktay tiene una licenciatura en Finanzas y Contabilidad y un certificado de posgrado en formación empresarial de Babson College. También es titular de una certificado CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst).

Sandeep Rao

Investigación

Sandeep se unió a Leverage Shares en septiembre de 2020. Está a cargo de la investigación de líneas de productos existentes y nuevas, clases de activos y estrategias, con un enfoque particular en el análisis de eventos y desarrollos recientes.

Sandeep tiene una larga experiencia en los mercados financieros. Comenzó en un hedge fund con sede en Chicago como ingeniero financiero, su carrera abarcó varios dominios y organizaciones durante un período de 8 años, desde la División de Prime Services de Barclays Capital hasta (más recientemente) el Equipo Index Research de Nasdaq.

Sandeep tiene una maestría en Finanzas, así como un MBA del Illinois Institute of Technology de Chicago.

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