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Gold Not Loosing its Lustre

Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.

The latest Gold Demand Trends report by the World Gold Council shows that gold demand in the third quarter of 2022 reached a high of 1,181 metric tons, a staggering 28% increase compared to the same period the prior year. This robust demand pushed the year-to-date total back to pre-COVID levels, with both consumers and central banks driving this growth.

Central banks have been accumulating gold at an unprecedented rate not seen in 55 years. Analysts estimate that in Q3 2022, almost 400 metric tons of gold were purchased. Late last year substantial quantities of gold were bought by the central bank of China, but also the central banks of Turkey, India, Uzbekistan, Egypt, Qatar, and Iraq made notable purchases.

The findings of a recent survey of central banks, shows that 25% of respondents indicated their intention to increase their gold reserves in the coming 12 months.

However, despite this impressive overall demand, investment in gold was down 47% YoY as ETF investors withdrew 227 metric tons due to a challenging market environment of rising interest rates and a strong US dollar.

But this drop in investment demand did not deter retail investors from turning to gold as a safe haven amidst rampant inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. In fact, retail demand for gold in Q3 2022 soared 36% YoY, as investors sought to hedge against inflation by buying bars and coins, highlighting gold’s continued popularity as a store of value.

Jewellery consumption rebounded and reached pre-pandemic levels, with India seeing the highest demand with urban consumers driving the growth. Similarly, the Middle East also recorded impressive growth with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates leading the scorecard.

In light of these findings, it’s clear that gold continues to be a trusted and valuable asset for investors, even in uncertain times. Despite the headwinds faced throughout 2022, the enduring demand for gold showcases its resilience and its ability to weather market volatility.

Despite a volatile macroeconomic climate in 2022, gold’s status as a safe-haven asset was evidenced by its outperformance of most asset classes. Looking ahead into 2023, it is expected that central banks purchases and retail investment will remain robust.

Source: Tradingeconomics

Gold is up almost 17% from its November 2022 low and is currently flirting with its resistance of $1,878. The leading RSI indicator is constructive, and we see a good probability of that level being cleared subsequently. While a short-term pull back to unwind the overbought momentum conditions could be seen in the short-term, levels to $1,920 – $1,940 appear achievable in the coming months.

The December 2022 Nonfarm Payroll report revealed that the labor market remains resilient despite the Fed’s efforts to curb inflation, leading to a decline in the U.S. dollar boosting the price for gold. The latest rally in gold has also benefited from China’s reopening with investors’ attention now shifting to Thursday’s highly anticipated U.S. Consumer Price Index inflation report.

Gold’s upward momentum is expected to persist as investors anticipate further U.S. dollar declines in the coming year. The U.S. dollar has clearly peaked in September 2022, and its current downward trajectory is expected to continue. In addition to the safe-haven demand stimulated by inflation and financial market volatility, gold prices are being supported by central banks’ buying at a rate not seen since 1976, according to the World Economic Forum.

With over a third of the global economies projected to enter recession and uncertainty surrounding central banks’ monetary policy in the face of persistent inflation, financial markets are likely to face another tumultuous year. Now, more than ever, investors are turning to gold as a safe-haven asset to navigate the stormy waters of the global economy.

Active traders looking for magnified exposure to the precious metal could consider our 3x Long Gold and -3x Short Gold ETPs.

Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.

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Violeta Todorova

Senior Research

Violeta se unió a Leverage Shares en septiembre de 2022. Ella gestiona la realización de análisis técnicos, investigación macroeconómica y de acciones, y ofrece información valiosa que ayuda a la definición de estrategias de inversión para los clientes.

Antes de unirse a LS, Violeta trabajó en varias empresas de inversión de alto perfil en Australia, como Tollhurst y Morgans Financial, donde pasó los últimos 12 años de su carrera.

Violeta es una técnica de mercado certificada de la Asociación Australiana de Analistas Técnicos y tiene un Diploma de Postgrado en Finanzas e Inversiones Aplicadas de Kaplan Professional (FINSIA), Australia, donde fue profesora durante varios años.

Julian Manoilov

Marketing Lead
Julián se unió a Leverage Shares en 2018 como parte de la principal expansión de la compañía en Europa del Este. Él es responsable de diseñar estrategias de marketing y promover el conocimiento de la marca.

Oktay Kavrak

Head of Communications and Strategy

Oktay se incorporó en Laverage Shares a fines de 2019. Él es responsable de impulsar el crecimiento del negocio al mantener relaciones clave y desarrollar la actividad de ventas en los mercados de habla inglesa.

Él vino de UniCredit, donde fue gerente de relaciones corporativas para empresas multinacionales. Su experiencia previa es en finanzas corporativas y administración de fondos en empresas como IBM Bulgaria y DeGiro / FundShare.

Oktay tiene una licenciatura en Finanzas y Contabilidad y un certificado de posgrado en formación empresarial de Babson College. También es titular de una certificado CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst).

Sandeep Rao

Investigación

Sandeep se unió a Leverage Shares en septiembre de 2020. Está a cargo de la investigación de líneas de productos existentes y nuevas, clases de activos y estrategias, con un enfoque particular en el análisis de eventos y desarrollos recientes.

Sandeep tiene una larga experiencia en los mercados financieros. Comenzó en un hedge fund con sede en Chicago como ingeniero financiero, su carrera abarcó varios dominios y organizaciones durante un período de 8 años, desde la División de Prime Services de Barclays Capital hasta (más recientemente) el Equipo Index Research de Nasdaq.

Sandeep tiene una maestría en Finanzas, así como un MBA del Illinois Institute of Technology de Chicago.

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