fbpx

Is The Airlines Industry Ready To Soar Again?

Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.

Are airlines good investments right now?

The COVID-19 pandemic was in many ways a true «black swan» for many stock market sectors. The spate of ensuing lockdowns and government regulations tested the resiliency of many industries. In particular, the airlines industry was particularly hard-hit, as global travel grinded to a standstill amid strict quarantine and entry requirements imposed by many countries.

More than two years later, the airline industry has staged a rocky, tentative recovery. Year-to-date, the US Global Jets ETF (JETS) is still down over 10%. Skyrocketing commodities prices have depressed the margins of airline operators, forcing them to cut costs elsewhere or raise ticket prices to compensate. Consumer have been slow to return to pre-pandemic travel habits as soaring inflation and rising rates curbed household spending. Fears of an impending recession have also promoted many to tighten their budgets in anticipation.

Spotting market inefficiencies in the airlines industry

Still, the current high volatility (and arguably bear) market offers attentive investors some potent trading opportunities. Earlier on March 23rd, Leverage Shares Director Oktay Kavrak tweeted about the possibility of setting up a pairs trade using Boeing (BA) and Airbus (AIR).

Pair trades are a type of arbitrage involving involve long and short positions in two different stocks with a positive correlation. To initiate a pairs trade, a trader must first identify two historically correlated stocks that have recently diverged in performance.

Once this has been identified, the trader takes a long position in the underperforming stock and sells short the outperforming stock. Profiting from a pairs trade relies on both stocks converging on their historical correlation, as the underperforming stock appreciates, and the outperforming stock falls.

Below I’ve plotted a chart of Boeing and Airbus stock’s YTD performance. We see that around April 25th, both stocks diverged significantly, with Boeing underperforming and Airbus outperforming.

As of writing, Boeing and Airbus have a negative correlation of -0.39 based on YTD data. Historically, the correlation between both stocks has been significantly higher, at around 0.80 based over a trailing 10-year period from 2012 to present.

Instruments to use

Investors looking to set up a pairs trade should therefore go long in Boeing and short in Airbus. For the former, buying the ticket should be sufficient. However, gaining short exposure for the latter is a bit more complicated.

Shorting a stock requires the use of portfolio margin. This is risky as margin is subject to borrow rates (which are expected to go up as various central banks initiate interest rate hikes) and the ever-present danger of a margin call should the value of the shorted security suddenly skyrocket.

Investors can also go short via put options. However, this exposes an investor’s capital to theta decay (the rate at which an options premium loses value over time), and implied volatility (IV) crush (the loss in an options premium due to suddenly decreased volatility, typically after earning are released). Options also expire, so a degree of market timing is required which causes additional risk.

A better way of gaining short (or long exposure) is by using Leverage Share’s suite of exchange-traded products, which offer the potential for a higher risk/reward profile via built-in daily three times (3x) resetting leverage.

A hypothetical investor looking to initiate a pairs trade can therefore go long on Boeing with 3x leverage by buying BA3, while going short on Airbus with 3x leverage by buying AIRS.

The final word

Traders interested in deploying a pairs trade strategy for the aforementioned airline stocks can manage their risk exposure using ETPs like BA3 and AIRS.

The physically backed nature of both ETPs ensures good liquidity and a narrow bid-ask spread, allowing you to enter and exit positions easily. Your risk is also capped based on how many shares you hold, making position sizing easy (just buy and sell shares) compared to maintaining margin requirements or calculating options delta exposure.

Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.

Post correlati

Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Violeta Todorova
Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Boyan Girginov
Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Q2 is poised for European stocks’ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Q2 is poised for European stocks’ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Sandeep Rao
Q2 is poised for European stocks’ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Q2 is poised for European stocks’ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Q2 is poised for European stocks’ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Violeta Todorova
Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
What is an ETF? How does an ETF work? Key characteristics of ETFs.
What is an ETF? How does an ETF work? Key characteristics of ETFs.
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Boyan Girginov
What is an ETF? How does an ETF work? Key characteristics of ETFs.
What is an ETF? How does an ETF work? Key characteristics of ETFs.
What is an ETF? How does an ETF work? Key characteristics of ETFs.
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Pawel Uchman
A quick primer on leveraged instruments available in markets today.
A quick primer on leveraged instruments available in markets today.
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Sandeep Rao
A quick primer on leveraged instruments available in markets today.
A quick primer on leveraged instruments available in markets today.
A quick primer on leveraged instruments available in markets today.

Violeta Todorova

Senior Research

Violeta se unió a Leverage Shares en septiembre de 2022. Ella gestiona la realización de análisis técnicos, investigación macroeconómica y de acciones, y ofrece información valiosa que ayuda a la definición de estrategias de inversión para los clientes.

Antes de unirse a LS, Violeta trabajó en varias empresas de inversión de alto perfil en Australia, como Tollhurst y Morgans Financial, donde pasó los últimos 12 años de su carrera.

Violeta es una técnica de mercado certificada de la Asociación Australiana de Analistas Técnicos y tiene un Diploma de Postgrado en Finanzas e Inversiones Aplicadas de Kaplan Professional (FINSIA), Australia, donde fue profesora durante varios años.

Julian Manoilov

Marketing Lead
Julián se unió a Leverage Shares en 2018 como parte de la principal expansión de la compañía en Europa del Este. Él es responsable de diseñar estrategias de marketing y promover el conocimiento de la marca.

Oktay Kavrak

Head of Communications and Strategy

Oktay se incorporó en Laverage Shares a fines de 2019. Él es responsable de impulsar el crecimiento del negocio al mantener relaciones clave y desarrollar la actividad de ventas en los mercados de habla inglesa.

Él vino de UniCredit, donde fue gerente de relaciones corporativas para empresas multinacionales. Su experiencia previa es en finanzas corporativas y administración de fondos en empresas como IBM Bulgaria y DeGiro / FundShare.

Oktay tiene una licenciatura en Finanzas y Contabilidad y un certificado de posgrado en formación empresarial de Babson College. También es titular de una certificado CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst).

Sandeep Rao

Investigación

Sandeep se unió a Leverage Shares en septiembre de 2020. Está a cargo de la investigación de líneas de productos existentes y nuevas, clases de activos y estrategias, con un enfoque particular en el análisis de eventos y desarrollos recientes.

Sandeep tiene una larga experiencia en los mercados financieros. Comenzó en un hedge fund con sede en Chicago como ingeniero financiero, su carrera abarcó varios dominios y organizaciones durante un período de 8 años, desde la División de Prime Services de Barclays Capital hasta (más recientemente) el Equipo Index Research de Nasdaq.

Sandeep tiene una maestría en Finanzas, así como un MBA del Illinois Institute of Technology de Chicago.

Gold Retreats But Rally is Not Over

Copper Ready to Explode

Q2 2024 Market Outlook: Rocky Road Ahead

What is an ETF? (Exchange Traded Fund)

How Do Leverage Shares ETPs Trade in Multiple Currencies

Currency Impact

Build your own ETP Basket
Leverage Shares: Europe’s top leveraged and inverse ETP provider.
Main ETP benefits
Common investor questions

Get the Newsletter

Never miss out on important announcements. Get premium content ahead of the crowd. Enjoy exclusive insights via the newsletter only.