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Mercedes E-Vehicle Sales Post a Record Quarter

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Mercedes-Benz Group AG is one of the leading global suppliers of premium and luxury cars and vans. Mercedes-Benz Mobility AG offers financing, leasing, car subscription and car rental, fleet management, digital services for charging and payment, insurance brokerage, as well as innovative mobility services. The company’s focus is on innovative and green technologies as well as on safe and superior vehicles that captivate and inspire. The company’s goal is to go all-electric, where market conditions allow.

In 2022 the global automotive market was negatively impacted by the effects of the war in Ukraine, the covid-related lockdowns in China, the ongoing disruptions in global supply chains and semiconductor shortages. Globally, the automotive market was significantly lower in the second quarter in comparison to the same period of the prior year. Despite the challenges, Mercedes-Benz Group AG achieved strong Q2 financial result which was released on the 27th of July 2022, “thanks to sustained demand for luxury vehicles and premium vans, a good model mix, enhanced pricing power and ongoing cost discipline”.

In the wake of heightened geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe, “Mercedes-Benz has sought to safeguard supply chains and to maximise the potential for reducing or substituting the use of natural gas in vehicle production” according to a company’s news release. “Mercedes-Benz sees a gas reduction potential of around 50% in Germany. The company’s long-term goal is to switch from gas to electricity and other renewable energy sources. The company continues to transform at full speed towards an all-electric future”.

On 11th of October 2022 Mercedes-Benz released its global Q3 (July to September) sales report. In Q3, Mercedes Benz sold 30,000 battery electric vehicles (5.8% from all vehicle sales), which represents an increase of 115% compared to the Q3 2021 and an increase of 28% compared to the Q2 2022. EV demand in the US is ramping up and Mercedes is introducing a full line-up, including the new EQS SUV which premier is later this month. Despite the challenging business environment for the industry, Mercedes appears to be faring better than most of its peers.

Electric vehicle sales were stronger than any other segment in Q3, helping the overall vehicle deliveries to reach 517,800 units (up 21% from Q2). This result shows Q3 is the strongest quarter this year, thanks to continuing demand for luxury EVs. The group has reached the sales numbers of its direct competitor BMW for Q3 (517,689 vehicles sold). As with BMW and other car makers, production and sales continue to be affected by semiconductor shortages and disrupted supply chains. Otherwise, the sales results could have been better, as demand outweighs production.

Parallel to the passenger car division, the Group’s sister company Mercedes-Benz Vans delivered an additional 3,300 electric vehicles in Q3. The company expects electric car sales to grow further, as new models would be introduced. The Mercedes-Benz EQE would be next plus configurations of existing models are on the pipeline.

The shares of Mercedes-Benz Group AG have been trading in a very strong up trend since March 2020, rallying from a low of €17.45 to a high of €77.90 reached in February 2022. A large bearish divergence between the price and the RSI indicator has formed on the weekly chart throughout April 2021 and February 2022, showing that internal momentum conditions have deteriorated. A large head and shoulders pattern has formed on the weekly chart, showing that selling pressure is building up.

Source: Tradingview

The neckline of the pattern has been broken recently and thus providing the required confirmation. The pattern has bearish implications and points to lower prices over the medium-term. The first potential downside price target based on the technical breakout is €45.00 followed by €40.00 in the coming months.

The fundamental backdrop aligns with the technical picture. Amid challenging and uncertain times not just for the auto industry but the overall global economy, demand for vehicles is likely to weaken, while input costs are likely to remain elevated; therefore, corporate earnings could come under pressure in the near-term. Central banks around the world are raising interest rates aiming to combat persistently hot inflation (German CPI for September YoY climbed to 10%, while U.S. CPI for September YoY is at 8.2%), even at the risk of tipping the global economy into a recession. The global economy is slowing down and the inflationary pressures are likely to remain higher for longer, making the market environment unfavourable.

For magnified exposure to the stock, you can check our 3x Long and 3x Short Mercedes Benz ETPs to take advantage of future up and down swings in the share price.

Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.

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Violeta Todorova

Senior Research

Violeta se unió a Leverage Shares en septiembre de 2022. Ella gestiona la realización de análisis técnicos, investigación macroeconómica y de acciones, y ofrece información valiosa que ayuda a la definición de estrategias de inversión para los clientes.

Antes de unirse a LS, Violeta trabajó en varias empresas de inversión de alto perfil en Australia, como Tollhurst y Morgans Financial, donde pasó los últimos 12 años de su carrera.

Violeta es una técnica de mercado certificada de la Asociación Australiana de Analistas Técnicos y tiene un Diploma de Postgrado en Finanzas e Inversiones Aplicadas de Kaplan Professional (FINSIA), Australia, donde fue profesora durante varios años.

Julian Manoilov

Marketing Lead
Julián se unió a Leverage Shares en 2018 como parte de la principal expansión de la compañía en Europa del Este. Él es responsable de diseñar estrategias de marketing y promover el conocimiento de la marca.

Oktay Kavrak

Head of Communications and Strategy

Oktay se incorporó en Laverage Shares a fines de 2019. Él es responsable de impulsar el crecimiento del negocio al mantener relaciones clave y desarrollar la actividad de ventas en los mercados de habla inglesa.

Él vino de UniCredit, donde fue gerente de relaciones corporativas para empresas multinacionales. Su experiencia previa es en finanzas corporativas y administración de fondos en empresas como IBM Bulgaria y DeGiro / FundShare.

Oktay tiene una licenciatura en Finanzas y Contabilidad y un certificado de posgrado en formación empresarial de Babson College. También es titular de una certificado CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst).

Sandeep Rao

Investigación

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Sandeep tiene una maestría en Finanzas, así como un MBA del Illinois Institute of Technology de Chicago.

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