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NASDAQ 100: Bounce Likely to Be Short-Lived

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After hitting a record high of 16,764 in November 2021 and strongly overbought weekly and daily momentum readings, the tech heavy benchmark Nasdaq-100 reversed its prior bull trend and has been trading in a secondary down trend which remains firmly intact at this point. The index staged an impressive rally from its June 2022 trough, advancing from a low of 11,037 to a high of 13,720 in August 2022, inspiring hopes that the bull market might return. While the index rebounded as yields dipped over the summer, the recent bounce in yields has triggered a downturn in equities this month, with the 10-year yield now around its highest level since June 16.

Back in August, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained below 70% and the weekly RSI readings were below 55%, showing that internal momentum conditions are extremely weak despite the strong run. The index encountered strong selling pressure around its medium-term down trend line and has been trading in the red over the past three weeks.

The widely watched technical indicator that investors use to gauge the health of the trend remains in fragile state, feeding worries that the bear market is far from over. While the technical picture can improve or worsen as markets gyrate and investors adjust expectations based on factors such as the trajectory of bond yields, which are driven by monetary policy expectations and have closely tracked the performance of stocks this year, our baseline scenario is for further weakness in the coming months.

In our view, the weekly momentum indicators need to unwind further. Therefore, a re-test of the June 2022 low appears to be on the cards (note: market sentiment about this was indicated in the last article). In the very short-term, the Nasdaq-100 index is likely to extend its current rebound to 12,900, before further weakness unfolds in the seasonally weak month of October.

The +3x Long US Tech 100 ETP provides magnified exposure and are traded on the London Stock Exchange in three different currencies: $LS 3X LONG US TECH 100 ETP(QQL3.UK)$ is traded in US Dollars, $3QQQ is traded in British Pounds and $3QQE is traded in Euros.

Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.

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Violeta Todorova

Senior Research

Violeta se unió a Leverage Shares en septiembre de 2022. Ella gestiona la realización de análisis técnicos, investigación macroeconómica y de acciones, y ofrece información valiosa que ayuda a la definición de estrategias de inversión para los clientes.

Antes de unirse a LS, Violeta trabajó en varias empresas de inversión de alto perfil en Australia, como Tollhurst y Morgans Financial, donde pasó los últimos 12 años de su carrera.

Violeta es una técnica de mercado certificada de la Asociación Australiana de Analistas Técnicos y tiene un Diploma de Postgrado en Finanzas e Inversiones Aplicadas de Kaplan Professional (FINSIA), Australia, donde fue profesora durante varios años.

Julian Manoilov

Marketing Lead
Julián se unió a Leverage Shares en 2018 como parte de la principal expansión de la compañía en Europa del Este. Él es responsable de diseñar estrategias de marketing y promover el conocimiento de la marca.

Oktay Kavrak

Head of Communications and Strategy

Oktay se incorporó en Laverage Shares a fines de 2019. Él es responsable de impulsar el crecimiento del negocio al mantener relaciones clave y desarrollar la actividad de ventas en los mercados de habla inglesa.

Él vino de UniCredit, donde fue gerente de relaciones corporativas para empresas multinacionales. Su experiencia previa es en finanzas corporativas y administración de fondos en empresas como IBM Bulgaria y DeGiro / FundShare.

Oktay tiene una licenciatura en Finanzas y Contabilidad y un certificado de posgrado en formación empresarial de Babson College. También es titular de una certificado CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst).

Sandeep Rao

Investigación

Sandeep se unió a Leverage Shares en septiembre de 2020. Está a cargo de la investigación de líneas de productos existentes y nuevas, clases de activos y estrategias, con un enfoque particular en el análisis de eventos y desarrollos recientes.

Sandeep tiene una larga experiencia en los mercados financieros. Comenzó en un hedge fund con sede en Chicago como ingeniero financiero, su carrera abarcó varios dominios y organizaciones durante un período de 8 años, desde la División de Prime Services de Barclays Capital hasta (más recientemente) el Equipo Index Research de Nasdaq.

Sandeep tiene una maestría en Finanzas, así como un MBA del Illinois Institute of Technology de Chicago.

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