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Oil Drops to Bargain Hunting Levels

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Last week crude oil prices have been trading lower after weaker Chinese economic data reversed the price boost received from Saudi Arabia’s commitment to cut output in July.

This week commenced with a further decline in crude oil prices with West Texas Intermediate dropping to $66.80. Traders are cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. Although the CME FedWatch tool indicates an 80% probability of the Fed pausing the hikes, investors remain apprehensive about the possibility of resumption next month.

On Tuesday, oil prices rebounded as bargain hunters seized the opportunity to accumulate at lower levels near key support. The impressive drop in U.S. headline inflation was another positive factor boosting the price further.

However, the gains are limited so far due to investor wariness ahead of crucial policy decisions by central banks and muted oil demand recovery from the biggest crude importer – China.

A screenshot of a graph

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Source: Tradingview

Over the past three months, the price of crude oil has exhibited sideways trading, fluctuating within the range of $63.64 to $81.28. More recently, in the last four weeks, prices have been confined to an even tighter range, oscillating between $66.80 and $75.06.

The daily Relative Strength Index indicator has bounced off its up trend line pointing to likely higher price levels in the short-term. The current set up on the chart suggests a rise to $73.00 – $74.00 could unfold in the coming days. Over the medium-term, price action is likely to continue to trade sideways.

The oil market finds itself entangled in a tug-of-war between two opposing forces. On one side, bearish asset allocators highlight the prospects of monetary contraction, while on the other side, bullish oil speculators anticipate diminishing inventories in the second half of 2023.

Market confidence that demand would surpass supply over the course of the year is waning. For market participants to regain confidence and build long positions, they would likely require substantial inventory declines.

On Tuesday OPEC left its forecast for 2023 global oil demand growth steady for a fourth month in a raw, despite warning that the global economy is facing rising uncertainty and slower growth in the second half of the year. OPEC’s economic growth forecast for 2023 remains unchanged at 2.6%, however the cartel noted that momentum is slowing.

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Violeta Todorova

Senior Research

Violeta se unió a Leverage Shares en septiembre de 2022. Ella gestiona la realización de análisis técnicos, investigación macroeconómica y de acciones, y ofrece información valiosa que ayuda a la definición de estrategias de inversión para los clientes.

Antes de unirse a LS, Violeta trabajó en varias empresas de inversión de alto perfil en Australia, como Tollhurst y Morgans Financial, donde pasó los últimos 12 años de su carrera.

Violeta es una técnica de mercado certificada de la Asociación Australiana de Analistas Técnicos y tiene un Diploma de Postgrado en Finanzas e Inversiones Aplicadas de Kaplan Professional (FINSIA), Australia, donde fue profesora durante varios años.

Julian Manoilov

Marketing Lead
Julián se unió a Leverage Shares en 2018 como parte de la principal expansión de la compañía en Europa del Este. Él es responsable de diseñar estrategias de marketing y promover el conocimiento de la marca.

Oktay Kavrak

Head of Communications and Strategy

Oktay se incorporó en Laverage Shares a fines de 2019. Él es responsable de impulsar el crecimiento del negocio al mantener relaciones clave y desarrollar la actividad de ventas en los mercados de habla inglesa.

Él vino de UniCredit, donde fue gerente de relaciones corporativas para empresas multinacionales. Su experiencia previa es en finanzas corporativas y administración de fondos en empresas como IBM Bulgaria y DeGiro / FundShare.

Oktay tiene una licenciatura en Finanzas y Contabilidad y un certificado de posgrado en formación empresarial de Babson College. También es titular de una certificado CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst).

Sandeep Rao

Investigación

Sandeep se unió a Leverage Shares en septiembre de 2020. Está a cargo de la investigación de líneas de productos existentes y nuevas, clases de activos y estrategias, con un enfoque particular en el análisis de eventos y desarrollos recientes.

Sandeep tiene una larga experiencia en los mercados financieros. Comenzó en un hedge fund con sede en Chicago como ingeniero financiero, su carrera abarcó varios dominios y organizaciones durante un período de 8 años, desde la División de Prime Services de Barclays Capital hasta (más recientemente) el Equipo Index Research de Nasdaq.

Sandeep tiene una maestría en Finanzas, así como un MBA del Illinois Institute of Technology de Chicago.

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