fbpx

Would the Bear Strike Again?

Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.

Building permits in the U.S. tumbled 11.2% from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.342 million in November 2022, well below market expectations of 1.485 million. Building permits which are a proxy for future construction, have been falling as soaring prices and rising mortgage rates have hit demand and activity, and marked the lowest level since June 2020.

Existing home sales in the U.S. slumped to a two and a half year low, plunging 7.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million in November 2022, much worse than market expectations of a 5.4% drop.

This is the tenth consecutive month of falls in home sales, which is the lowest level since May 2020, as the Fed’s aggressive interest rate hiking cycle is having a huge impact on housing. Despite demand being down, supply remains tight, keeping home prices elevated, albeit the pace of increases is slowing.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released on the Thursday GDP growth rate data, showing the U.S. economy grew at an annualized 3.2% on quarter in Q3 2022, better than 2.9% in the second estimate, and rebounding from two straight quarters of contraction.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 2,000 to 216,000 in the week ending 17th of December, below market expectations of 220,000 and extending signals of a stubbornly tight labor market, adding to hawkish projections for the Federal Reserve along with the upward revision to the US GDP.

Labor market resilience is keeping the U.S. central bank on its aggressive policy tightening campaign, with the Fed last week projecting at least an additional 75 basis points of increases in borrowing costs by the end of 2023. Companies are likely to stop hiring before starting layoffs as employers have been struggling to find labor during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Overall, equity markets suffered its worst year since the Global Financial Crisis, crushed under the boot of rising interest rates, supply chain disruptions and ongoing global energy crisis. These joined forces generated the greatest inflation shock over the past four decades, forcing the central bank to aggressively hike rates.

Source: Tradingview

The current short-term strength of the market is likely to be a temporary relief rally and the overall weakness in 2022 could extend into the first quarter of next year, as equity valuations in the U.S. remain high by historical standards and economic data points to a likely upcoming recession spelling risks for corporate earnings.

Higher interest rates are harmful for riskier assets like equities because they can compress valuation multiples apart from inflict damage on the overall economy. Some of the valuation adjustment has already played out, with the S&P 500 earnings multiple falling sharply this year. However, the earnings impact is not fully priced in and could be a big driver in 2023.

While the lagging indicators are showing that the U.S. economy is still fine, the forward-looking indicators are flushing red. The housing market is starting to crack, new business orders are declining, and the yield curve is deeply inverted. “Interest rates” and “inflation” were in most headlines in 2022, but “recession” is likely to take the throne in 2023.

The strong rebound from the October lows has already reversed direction and it looks like Santa won’t be coming to town this year. We have repeatedly warned in previous articles that further weakness is ahead, and our baseline scenario for a likely new low likely being formed in the first half of 2023 remains unchanged. In our view levels to 3,400 in the coming months appear feasible.

Active traders looking for magnified exposure to U.S. equity indices may consider our 3x Long US 500 and -3x Short US 500 ETPs.

Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.

Post correlati

Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Violeta Todorova
Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Boyan Girginov
Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Q2 is poised for European stocks’ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Q2 is poised for European stocks’ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Sandeep Rao
Q2 is poised for European stocks’ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Q2 is poised for European stocks’ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Q2 is poised for European stocks’ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Violeta Todorova
Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
What is an ETF? How does an ETF work? Key characteristics of ETFs.
What is an ETF? How does an ETF work? Key characteristics of ETFs.
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Boyan Girginov
What is an ETF? How does an ETF work? Key characteristics of ETFs.
What is an ETF? How does an ETF work? Key characteristics of ETFs.
What is an ETF? How does an ETF work? Key characteristics of ETFs.
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Pawel Uchman
A quick primer on leveraged instruments available in markets today.
A quick primer on leveraged instruments available in markets today.
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Sandeep Rao
A quick primer on leveraged instruments available in markets today.
A quick primer on leveraged instruments available in markets today.
A quick primer on leveraged instruments available in markets today.

Violeta Todorova

Senior Research

Violeta se unió a Leverage Shares en septiembre de 2022. Ella gestiona la realización de análisis técnicos, investigación macroeconómica y de acciones, y ofrece información valiosa que ayuda a la definición de estrategias de inversión para los clientes.

Antes de unirse a LS, Violeta trabajó en varias empresas de inversión de alto perfil en Australia, como Tollhurst y Morgans Financial, donde pasó los últimos 12 años de su carrera.

Violeta es una técnica de mercado certificada de la Asociación Australiana de Analistas Técnicos y tiene un Diploma de Postgrado en Finanzas e Inversiones Aplicadas de Kaplan Professional (FINSIA), Australia, donde fue profesora durante varios años.

Julian Manoilov

Marketing Lead
Julián se unió a Leverage Shares en 2018 como parte de la principal expansión de la compañía en Europa del Este. Él es responsable de diseñar estrategias de marketing y promover el conocimiento de la marca.

Oktay Kavrak

Head of Communications and Strategy

Oktay se incorporó en Laverage Shares a fines de 2019. Él es responsable de impulsar el crecimiento del negocio al mantener relaciones clave y desarrollar la actividad de ventas en los mercados de habla inglesa.

Él vino de UniCredit, donde fue gerente de relaciones corporativas para empresas multinacionales. Su experiencia previa es en finanzas corporativas y administración de fondos en empresas como IBM Bulgaria y DeGiro / FundShare.

Oktay tiene una licenciatura en Finanzas y Contabilidad y un certificado de posgrado en formación empresarial de Babson College. También es titular de una certificado CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst).

Sandeep Rao

Investigación

Sandeep se unió a Leverage Shares en septiembre de 2020. Está a cargo de la investigación de líneas de productos existentes y nuevas, clases de activos y estrategias, con un enfoque particular en el análisis de eventos y desarrollos recientes.

Sandeep tiene una larga experiencia en los mercados financieros. Comenzó en un hedge fund con sede en Chicago como ingeniero financiero, su carrera abarcó varios dominios y organizaciones durante un período de 8 años, desde la División de Prime Services de Barclays Capital hasta (más recientemente) el Equipo Index Research de Nasdaq.

Sandeep tiene una maestría en Finanzas, así como un MBA del Illinois Institute of Technology de Chicago.

Gold Retreats But Rally is Not Over

Copper Ready to Explode

Q2 2024 Market Outlook: Rocky Road Ahead

What is an ETF? (Exchange Traded Fund)

How Do Leverage Shares ETPs Trade in Multiple Currencies

Currency Impact

Build your own ETP Basket
Leverage Shares: Europe’s top leveraged and inverse ETP provider.
Main ETP benefits
Common investor questions

Get the Newsletter

Never miss out on important announcements. Get premium content ahead of the crowd. Enjoy exclusive insights via the newsletter only.