fbpx

NEW on Borsa Italiana: -3x NVDA  -3x NIO 3x UBER 3x AMD -3x BABA 3x NFLX -3x COIN FAANG+

Learn More

Announcement: New ETPs on XETRA New ETPs on XETRA

Learn More

Tech Stock Retreat vs The Landing

  • MARKET INSIGHTS

Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.

Almost as if a switch was pressed, the Nasdaq Composite – which encapsulates almost all Nasdaq-listed stocks – collapsed 1.63% in the first day of trading from the highs of 2023. This was the 4th worst start to a new year since 1972 and only the 5th time that it has started a year with a one-day drop of more than 1.5%. In the first week of the year, the index fell another 1.64%.

Within the «tech heavy» Nasdaq-100, pharmaceuticals ruled the roost in terms of momentum; tech was virtually nowhere to be seen in the Top 25 list – a massive shift in trends seen in Q3 and Q4 of 2023.

In holistic terms, the index isn’t rising: the one-day drop for the Nasdaq-100 in the new year was 1.68%. As of the first week of the year, the index shed another 1.44%.

The «broad market» S&P 500 was relatively muted: its one-day drop in the new year was 0.57% and it dropped another 0.96% in the first week of the year. Pharmaceuticals and financial services ruled the roost in the Top 25 list.

The biggest drop over the week, however, was witnessed in the small-cap Russell 2000 which pulled back by 3.1%. Its one-day drop in the new year was 0.7%. The top gainers in this index were almost exclusively pharmaceutical companies.

Whether these early trends portend general market directionality in the year to come might be aided (or hindered) by overall institutional outlook for the year, which ranges from optimistic to neutral.

Institutional Outlook

In its outlook for 2024, British investment bank Barclays opined1 that 2024 will be a particularly muddled year for the Western Hemisphere.

While the Hemisphere is expected to see lower year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, the United States will see a 17% increase in the unemployment rate along with a 50% decrease in private consumption. No region – be it the U.S., the U.K. or the Continent – will experience GDP growth.

The drop in consumption is a particularly ominous indicator for the technology sector: without significant buy-ins, forward valuations and investor convictions get shaky. As the Blackrock Investment Institute2 indicated, «tech» enjoyed a conviction premium throughout 2023 and ended the year with a nearly 155% outperformance against the «broad market».

France’s Amundi – Europe’s largest asset manager in Europe and one of the world’s 10 biggest investment managers – estimates3 that wage growth in the U.S. has peaked and will slide lower in the year ahead.

Given that CPI inflation is expected to drop, that drop in wage growth might have a certain rationale. Then why the drop in personal consumption? This is a more complex and multi-factored issue that is not certainly helped by the fact that the average U.S. consumer/resident has been saddled with rising costs far in excess of wage growth for well over a decade now. The «weight of macro consequences» is a slow-moving iceberg seldom addressable with simple measures.

As the U.S. prepares for arguably one of the most contentious elections in modern history, economists and forecasters have been particularly wary of making prognostications, especially after market cool-offs and sector rotations didn’t materialize as expected in 2023. Some have substituted the term «recession» with musings on whether a «landing» will be «hard» or «soft». Presently, consensus is inching towards a «soft landing» over the hard. However, Germany’s Allianz Global Investors – a subsidiary of the world’s largest insurance company – noted in its outlook4 that forecasters’ consensus opinions have been wrong on virtually every recession since the eighties:

One feature that stands out is that nearly every recessionary event was almost immediately preceded by a low probability consensus of said recession occurring.

Another assumed truism is that an «American» recession tends to spell doom for the global market and economy as well. In its outlook for 2024, BNY Mellon outlines5 that this may not happen. After a high water mark around 2010 – itself marking the last significant recessionary event (the Global Financial Crisis (GFC)) – Emerging Markets (EM) have been increasingly uncoupled from Developed Markets (DM).

This highlights an often-stated yet frequently-derided trend broadly referred to as «deglobalization». In effect, the notion of a «global driver» is increasingly less viable.

A Change in the Air

«Deglobalization» is merely one of many indicators that classical models are being challenged. One «classic» is the bond-equities relationship which most investors broadly understand as a «flight to safety» paradigm from equities to bonds when the former looks shaky and vice versa when the outlook has stabilized. Barclays asserted that bond-equity correlations, a key measure for asset allocation strategies, have shot up to levels last seen twenty years ago (i.e. circa the dot-com bubble).

At current levels of correlation, the bank states that bonds do not act as the shock absorbers to equities as they have done in the past.

Another «classic model» being challenged is an investor favourite: the «buy and hold». As per studies by the BlackRock Investment Institute, investors who get «granular» with their portfolio allocations have tended to thrive over those with «static» portfolios.

With a wide arsenal of tools and strategies to help outperform static portfolios, BlackRock asserts that investment expertise is likely to give portfolios an edge by enabling more effective core allocations, implementing «alpha» ideas and hedging risk.

Key Takeaways

In the 2024 market outlook article published last month6, it was opined that AI, for better or for worse is here to stay and will continue to have a strong influence in investor conviction at least in the near- to mid-term. While it’s certainly well within reason to hold forth that America’s tech stocks being heavily overvalued relative to the rest of the market is a headwind, AI-related developments will continue to be regarded as tailwinds for the constituents of the sector. A similar tilt in favour is expected to be writ large in the private market as well.

With deeply-held notions being challenged (or even potentially altered forever), it likely would pay – more so now than ever – if investors were to eschew the hype around favourites, examine closely ideas considered to be «fundamental» and explore new strategies available. Professional investors should consider the potential inherent within tactical trading using leveraged ETPs. Click here for a complete list of Leverage Shares’ products.

  1. «Outlook 2024: A year of hard choices», Barclays, 13 November 2023
  2. «2024 Global Investment Outlook», BlackRock Investment Institute, 5 December 2023
  3. «2024 Investment Outlook», Amundi Investment Institute, 23 November 2023
  4. «Outlook 2024: targeting opportunities», Allianz Global Investors, 22 November 2023
  5. «2024 Capital Market Assumptions: The Path to Normalization», BNY Mellon Wealth Management, 21 November 2023
  6. «S&P 500: 2023 Highs and the Year Ahead», Leverage Shares, 15 December 2023

Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.

Volver a Cómo invertir

Leverage Shares ETPs

Elaborado por

Sandeep Rao

Category: MARKET INSIGHTS

Learn more

Share this:

Post correlati

Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Violeta Todorova
Gold
Read
Gold
Read
  • MARKET INSIGHTS

Copper Ready to Explode

Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
  • MARKET INSIGHTS

Copper Ready to Explode

Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Boyan Girginov
  • MARKET INSIGHTS

Copper Ready to Explode

Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Copper Rise

Copper Ready to Explode

Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
  • MARKET INSIGHTS
Read
Copper Rise

Copper Ready to Explode

Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Read
  • MARKET INSIGHTS

Q2 2024 Outlook: Rough Roads, Some Bulls

Q2 is poised for European stocks’ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
  • MARKET INSIGHTS

Q2 2024 Outlook: Rough Roads, Some Bulls

Q2 is poised for European stocks’ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Sandeep Rao
  • MARKET INSIGHTS

Q2 2024 Outlook: Rough Roads, Some Bulls

Q2 is poised for European stocks’ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Icon- Market outlook

Q2 2024 Outlook: Rough Roads, Some Bulls

Q2 is poised for European stocks’ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
  • MARKET INSIGHTS
Read
Icon- Market outlook

Q2 2024 Outlook: Rough Roads, Some Bulls

Q2 is poised for European stocks’ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Read
  • MARKET INSIGHTS

S&P 500 Plunges on Rising Middle East Tension

Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
  • MARKET INSIGHTS

S&P 500 Plunges on Rising Middle East Tension

Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Violeta Todorova
  • MARKET INSIGHTS

S&P 500 Plunges on Rising Middle East Tension

Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
S&P 500

S&P 500 Plunges on Rising Middle East Tension

Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
  • MARKET INSIGHTS
Read
S&P 500

S&P 500 Plunges on Rising Middle East Tension

Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
Read
  • EDUCATION

What is an ETF? (Exchange Traded Fund)

What is an ETF? How does an ETF work? Key characteristics of ETFs.
  • EDUCATION

What is an ETF? (Exchange Traded Fund)

What is an ETF? How does an ETF work? Key characteristics of ETFs.
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Boyan Girginov
  • EDUCATION

What is an ETF? (Exchange Traded Fund)

What is an ETF? How does an ETF work? Key characteristics of ETFs.
What is an ETF_

What is an ETF? (Exchange Traded Fund)

What is an ETF? How does an ETF work? Key characteristics of ETFs.
  • EDUCATION
Read
What is an ETF_

What is an ETF? (Exchange Traded Fund)

What is an ETF? How does an ETF work? Key characteristics of ETFs.
Read
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Pawel Uchman
Icon- Leverage Shares ETPs
Read
Icon- Leverage Shares ETPs
Read
  • EDUCATION

Leveraged ETFs: What Are They and How They Work

A quick primer on leveraged instruments available in markets today.
  • EDUCATION

Leveraged ETFs: What Are They and How They Work

A quick primer on leveraged instruments available in markets today.
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Sandeep Rao
  • EDUCATION

Leveraged ETFs: What Are They and How They Work

A quick primer on leveraged instruments available in markets today.
Icon- What are Leveraged ETFs

Leveraged ETFs: What Are They and How They Work

A quick primer on leveraged instruments available in markets today.
  • EDUCATION
Read
Icon- What are Leveraged ETFs

Leveraged ETFs: What Are They and How They Work

A quick primer on leveraged instruments available in markets today.
Read

Manténgase en contacto

Al suscribirse aquí, acepta nuestra Política de privacidad y recibirá nuestros boletines. Puede darse de baja en cualquier momento siguiendo el enlace que se encuentra en la parte inferior de cada boletín.

Nuestros ETPs

Compañía

Centro de Trading

Legal

Youtube Linkedin Instagram Telegram
El valor de una inversión en ETP puede disminuir o aumentar, y el rendimiento pasado no es un indicador confiable del rendimiento futuro. Operar con ETP puede no ser adecuado para todos los tipos de inversores, ya que conllevan un alto grado de riesgo. Ud. puede perder toda su inversión inicial. Solo especule con dinero que pueda permitirse perder. Las variaciones en los tipos de cambio también pueden hacer que su inversión suba o baje de valor. Las leyes tributarias pueden estar sujetas a cambios. Asegúrese de comprender completamente los riesgos. Si tiene alguna duda, solicite asesoramiento financiero independiente. Los inversores deben consultar la sección titulada «Factores de riesgo» en el folleto correspondiente para obtener más detalles sobre estos y otros riesgos asociados con una inversión en los valores ofrecidos por el Emisor. Este material no está destinado a ser utilizado como pronóstico, investigación o consejo de inversión y no es una recomendación, oferta o solicitud para comprar o vender ningún instrumento o producto financiero o para adoptar una estrategia de inversión. Toda decisión de invertir debe basarse en la información contenida en el folleto de base correspondiente después de buscar asesoramiento independiente en materia de inversión, fiscal y legal.
© Leverage Shares 2025
See Top Performers
Contact a representative
In the press
Contacts
How to Invest
Linkedin

Violeta Todorova

Senior Research

Violeta se unió a Leverage Shares en septiembre de 2022. Ella gestiona la realización de análisis técnicos, investigación macroeconómica y de acciones, y ofrece información valiosa que ayuda a la definición de estrategias de inversión para los clientes.

Antes de unirse a LS, Violeta trabajó en varias empresas de inversión de alto perfil en Australia, como Tollhurst y Morgans Financial, donde pasó los últimos 12 años de su carrera.

Violeta es una técnica de mercado certificada de la Asociación Australiana de Analistas Técnicos y tiene un Diploma de Postgrado en Finanzas e Inversiones Aplicadas de Kaplan Professional (FINSIA), Australia, donde fue profesora durante varios años.

Linkedin

Julian Manoilov

Marketing Lead
Julián se unió a Leverage Shares en 2018 como parte de la principal expansión de la compañía en Europa del Este. Él es responsable de diseñar estrategias de marketing y promover el conocimiento de la marca.

Oktay Kavrak

Head of Communications and Strategy

Oktay se incorporó en Laverage Shares a fines de 2019. Él es responsable de impulsar el crecimiento del negocio al mantener relaciones clave y desarrollar la actividad de ventas en los mercados de habla inglesa.

Él vino de UniCredit, donde fue gerente de relaciones corporativas para empresas multinacionales. Su experiencia previa es en finanzas corporativas y administración de fondos en empresas como IBM Bulgaria y DeGiro / FundShare.

Oktay tiene una licenciatura en Finanzas y Contabilidad y un certificado de posgrado en formación empresarial de Babson College. También es titular de una certificado CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst).

Sandeep Rao

Investigación

Sandeep se unió a Leverage Shares en septiembre de 2020. Está a cargo de la investigación de líneas de productos existentes y nuevas, clases de activos y estrategias, con un enfoque particular en el análisis de eventos y desarrollos recientes.

Sandeep tiene una larga experiencia en los mercados financieros. Comenzó en un hedge fund con sede en Chicago como ingeniero financiero, su carrera abarcó varios dominios y organizaciones durante un período de 8 años, desde la División de Prime Services de Barclays Capital hasta (más recientemente) el Equipo Index Research de Nasdaq.

Sandeep tiene una maestría en Finanzas, así como un MBA del Illinois Institute of Technology de Chicago.

  • Leverage & Inverse ETPs
  • Stock Tracker ETPs
  • All Products
See Top Performers
Corto y Apalancado
Non-leveraged
Todos los productos
Corto y Apalancado
Non-leveraged
Todos los productos
Corto y Apalancado
Non-leveraged
Todos los productos
Corto y Apalancado
Non-leveraged
Todos los productos
How to Invest
Corto y Apalancado
Non-leveraged
Todos los productos
Sobre nosotros
Por qué nosotros
En la prensa
Contacto
Carreras
Perspectivas del Mercado
Educación
Mapa de calor de ETP
Mejor desempeño
Guía de ETP
Preguntas Frecuentes
Marca Blanca
Corto y Apalancado
Non-leveraged
Todos los productos

Sobre nosotros
Por qué nosotros
En la prensa
Contacto
Carreras

Perspectivas del Mercado
Educación
Mapa de calor de ETP
Mejor desempeño
Guía de ETP
Preguntas Frecuentes

Careers
Cómo invertir

Market Insights

Gold Retreats But Rally is Not Over

Copper Ready to Explode

Q2 2024 Market Outlook: Rocky Road Ahead

See all

Education

What is an ETF? (Exchange Traded Fund)

How Do Leverage Shares ETPs Trade in Multiple Currencies

Currency Impact

See all

Basket Builder

Build your own ETP Basket

About

Leverage Shares: Europe’s top leveraged and inverse ETP provider.
In the press

Why us

Main ETP benefits
Contacts

FAQs

Common investor questions

Equities

Contact a representative

Alternatives

Custom Baskets

Leverage & Inverse ETPs

See Top Performers

Stock Tracker ETPs

All Products

Get the Newsletter

Never miss out on important announcements. Get premium content ahead of the crowd. Enjoy exclusive insights via the newsletter only.