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Tesla Delivers but Faces Headwinds

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  • Record High Deliveries
  • BYD Overtakes Tesla
  • Tesla’s Bumpy Road

Record High Deliveries

In 2023, Tesla achieved significant sales, exceeding the estimated 1.8 million vehicles, a notable accomplishment under Elon Musk’s leadership. This achievement can be attributed to strategic price cuts designed to stimulate demand in an increasingly competitive electric vehicle (EV) market.

Tesla’s sales showed a 38% increase in 2023 compared to the previous year, indicating a slight deceleration in its growth rate. The company is now navigating a more competitive environment characterized by measured expansion and reduced profit margins.

Despite reaching this impressive milestone, Tesla’s CEO had ambitiously hinted at a target of 2.0 million sales last year, a goal that remained unmet.

Nevertheless, over the past 16 years, Tesla has sold close to 5.5 million electric vehicles, a testament to the significant impact that the company had in the EV market.

A graph showing Tesla's sales over the years. Source: ir.tesla.com

During the latest quarter, the EV automaker smashed its previous record of 466k deliveries by handing over 485k EVs to its loyal customers.

Moreover, the company has finally begun delivering its long-awaited Cybertruck to its ecstatic customers.

A graph showing Tesla's deliveries by model.

Source: brandude87 & Tesla IR (Reddit)

BYD Overtakes Tesla

This month marked a milestone for the Chinese vehicle manufacturer BYD, which surpassed Tesla’s Q4 sales for the first time. BYD sold 526k battery-only electric vehicles, outperforming Tesla’s Q4 sales of 485k in 2023.

A graph comparing BYD and Tesla's sales.

Source: Bloomberg

On an annual basis, BYD recorded a growth rate of 70% Year-over-Year, selling nearly 1.6 million battery-powered vehicles compared to 1.81 million by its competitor Tesla.

This intense rivalry has caused Tesla to slash prices in China to boost the demand for its products.

Tesla revealed new pricing for its Model 3 sedan and Model Y SUV, with the Model 3 seeing a 5.9% cut to $34,600, while the Model Y got a 2.8% discount to $36,400.

Tesla’s Bumpy Road

Tesla (TSLA) intends to suspend operations at its primary European facility in Berlin for a fortnight due to a shortage of components. This move indicates the beginning of the global economic impact resulting from the recent assaults on vessels in the Red Sea.

Tesla announced that it will cease most of its production activities at its plant near Berlin from January 29 to February 11 due to a component shortage. The company plans to resume production on February 12.

To add to the challenges Tesla’s investors face, the company is set to increase the salaries of its entire US workforce. Consequently, Tesla’s profit margins are expected to suffer further due to rising operating expenses.

Also, Tesla has recalled 1.6 million cars in China due to technical issues with its driver assistance to fix autopilot issues, in a similar move to the one they did in the US last month. The recall in the United States occurred during an extensive investigation by the leading automotive safety authority into accidents involving driver-assist systems over several years.

Lastly, Hertz, a rental company, is offloading approximately 20k electric vehicles, including Teslas, from its U.S. fleet. This move comes roughly two years after the firm’s agreement with the automaker to provide its vehicles for rental, indicating a downturn in the demand for electric vehicles.

All the price cuts have also hit Tesla’s gross margins (GM) to boost the demand for its products.

Graph illustrating the changes in Tesla's Gross Margins.

Source: Company Data

Look at how, steadily, Tesla’s GM has been shrinking and even falling behind competitors Toyota and VW, halving from 34% to 16% in two years.

Are margins ready to bounce off in a big way, especially given that the most anticipated recession is yet to materialize in the US? And what will drive earnings growth for Tesla?

Those questions will probably be addressed in the next major company update on 24-Jan-2024 when Tesla releases its Q4’2023 earnings!

Investors can long Tesla using our 1x Tesla, 2x Tesla, 3x Tesla.

Alternatively, traders can short Tesla using our -1x Tesla, -2x Tesla, -3x Tesla.

Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.

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Violeta Todorova

Senior Research

Violeta se unió a Leverage Shares en septiembre de 2022. Ella gestiona la realización de análisis técnicos, investigación macroeconómica y de acciones, y ofrece información valiosa que ayuda a la definición de estrategias de inversión para los clientes.

Antes de unirse a LS, Violeta trabajó en varias empresas de inversión de alto perfil en Australia, como Tollhurst y Morgans Financial, donde pasó los últimos 12 años de su carrera.

Violeta es una técnica de mercado certificada de la Asociación Australiana de Analistas Técnicos y tiene un Diploma de Postgrado en Finanzas e Inversiones Aplicadas de Kaplan Professional (FINSIA), Australia, donde fue profesora durante varios años.

Julian Manoilov

Marketing Lead
Julián se unió a Leverage Shares en 2018 como parte de la principal expansión de la compañía en Europa del Este. Él es responsable de diseñar estrategias de marketing y promover el conocimiento de la marca.

Oktay Kavrak

Head of Communications and Strategy

Oktay se incorporó en Laverage Shares a fines de 2019. Él es responsable de impulsar el crecimiento del negocio al mantener relaciones clave y desarrollar la actividad de ventas en los mercados de habla inglesa.

Él vino de UniCredit, donde fue gerente de relaciones corporativas para empresas multinacionales. Su experiencia previa es en finanzas corporativas y administración de fondos en empresas como IBM Bulgaria y DeGiro / FundShare.

Oktay tiene una licenciatura en Finanzas y Contabilidad y un certificado de posgrado en formación empresarial de Babson College. También es titular de una certificado CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst).

Sandeep Rao

Investigación

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Sandeep tiene una maestría en Finanzas, así como un MBA del Illinois Institute of Technology de Chicago.

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