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Capitalising on a Shift in Federal Reserve Policy

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is an exchange-traded fund. The Fund seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of United States Treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than 20 years. These bonds are issued by the U.S. government to fund its long-term borrowing needs. The index also includes fixed-rate bonds, inflation-protected securities (TIPS), and Separate Trading of Registered Interest and Principal Securities (STRIPS).

The fund reflects and has inverse relationship with long-dated U.S. interest rates; therefore, it rises when rates fall and declines when rates increase. The ETF pays a monthly dividend, which was last paid on the 7 th of June 2023 amounting to $0.273. This represents a $3.28 dividend on an annualized basis and a dividend yield of 3.16%. TLT is highly liquid, it has $39.35 billion in assets under management and trades an average of 23.82 million shares daily, charging a 0.15% expense ratio.

As an ETF, TLT allows investors to gain exposure to a diversified portfolio of long-term Treasury bonds by purchasing shares on a stock exchange. The fund seeks to provide investors with returns that correspond to the performance of the underlying index, minus fees and expenses.

While the Fed may potentially implement one or two more rate hikes by year-end, if there is not significant deterioration in economic data, we are nearing the peak of interest rates, and a shift in Federal Reserve policy is coming. Investing in TLT can be advantageous for several reasons:

Price appreciation: When interest rates decline, the value of U.S. Treasury bonds held by TLT, tends to rise.

Income generation: TLT primarily invests in long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, which generally offer higher yields than shorter-term bonds.

Safe-haven investment: U.S. Treasury bonds are considered safe-haven assets, especially during uncertain economic conditions or periods of market volatility.

It’s important to note that investing in TLT, like any investment, involves risks. If interest rates rise instead of falling, the value of TLT and its bond holdings may decline.

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Source: TradingView

TLT had a rough 2022, dropping 40% from a high of $155.12 to a low of $91.85 as the Federal Reserve aggressively increased the short-term fed funds rate last year, and quantitative tightening pushed interest rates higher further out.

It appears TLT have bottomed at $91.85 in October 2022 as the price behaviour over the past seven months shows a number of positive developments. In December 2022 the Relative Strength Index indicator moved into a bull market range which suggests that the prior down trend is likely to reverse course soon.

The sequence of lower lows and lower highs has been broken for the first time since December 2021 showing that the buyers are stepping in. A clear trading range has been established since the onset of the year with the price fluctuating between $98.88 and $109.68. A subsequent break above resistance of $109.68 appears to be highly likely given the improvement in the momentum conditions which will confirm that a new bull market has started. The potential upside price target based on the breakout is in the $120.00 – $125.00 range.

Bond exchange-traded products (ETPs) offer investors diversification, accessibility, transparency, income generation, liquidity, and cost efficiency. These benefits make bond ETPs an attractive option for investors looking to gain exposure to a diversified portfolio of bonds while enjoying the advantages of listed and tradable investment vehicles.

Active traders looking for magnified exposure to iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF may consider our 5x Long 20+ Year Treasury Bond or -5x Short 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETPs.

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Violeta Todorova

Senior Research

Violeta a rejoint Leverage Shares en septembre 2022. Elle est chargée de mener des analyses techniques et des recherches sur les actions et macroéconomiques, fournissant des informations importantes pour aider à façonner les stratégies d’investissement des clients.

Avant de rejoindre LS, Violeta a travaillé dans plusieurs sociétés d’investissement de premier plan en Australie, telles que Tollhurst et Morgans Financial, où elle a passé les 12 dernières années de sa carrière.

Violeta est une technicienne de marché certifiée de l’Australian Technical Analysts Association et est titulaire d’un diplôme d’études supérieures en finance appliquée et investissement de Kaplan Professional (FINSIA), Australie, où elle a été conférencière pendant plusieurs années.

Julian Manoilov

Marketing Lead

Julian a étudié l’économie, la psychologie, la sociologie, la politique européenne et la linguistique. Il possède de l’expérience en matière de développement commercial et de marketing grâce à des entreprises qu’il a lui-même créées.

Pour Julian, Leverage Shares est une entreprise innovante dans le domaine de la finance et de la fintech, et il se réjouit toujours de partager les prochaines grandes avancées avec les investisseurs du Royaume-Uni et d’Europe.

Oktay Kavrak

Head of Communications and Strategy

Oktay a rejoint Leverage Shares fin 2019. Il est responsable de la croissance de l’activité à travers des relations clés et le développement de l’activité commerciale sur les marchés anglophones. 

Il a rejoint LS après UniCredit, où il était responsable des relations avec les entreprises pour les multinationales. Il a également travaillé au sein de sociétés telles qu’IBM Bulgarie et DeGiro / FundShare dans le domaine de la finance d’entreprise et de l’administration de fonds.

Oktay est titulaire d’une licence en finance et comptabilité et d’un certificat d’études supérieures en entrepreneuriat du Babson College. Il est également détenteur de la certification CFA.

Sandeep Rao

Recherche

Sandeep a une longue expérience des marchés financiers. Il a débuté sa carrière en tant qu’ingénieur financier au sein d’un hedge fund basé à Chicago. Pendant huit ans, il a travaillé dans différents domaines et organisations, de la division Prime Services de Barclays Capital à l’équipe de recherche sur les indices du Nasdaq (plus récemment).

Sandeep est titulaire d’un master spécialisé en finance et d’un master en administration des affaires de I’Institut de technologie de Chicago.

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