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Equities into Bear Market's Clatches

U.S. equities continued to slide toward the end of the year, and it appears increasingly unlikely that the stock market would be able to mount a successful rally to build momentum into 2023. The NASDAQ 100 index lead the market downfall during the holiday-shortened trading week and is on pace for its worst decline for the year since the Global Financial Crisis, amid growing concern about a recession in 2023 and surging COVID-19 cases in China.

With light news flows this week, financial markets were choppy and traded on low volumes as return from the Christmas break was muted with investors extending celebrations into the new year. Traders are wary about a possible end-of-year recovery and look to farewell a dismal year for the stock market and prepare for more volatility in 2023.

Economic data this week showed that house prices aren’t falling further, which has the potential to give the Fed additional ammunition in its campaign of monetary policy tightening and could in turn serve to limit upside potential for stocks in the coming months.

Wall Street’s main indexes rebounded strongly on Thursday, however the NASDAQ 100 index is still trading near its 2022 low, as investors grappled with mixed economic data, surging COVID-19 cases in China, and geopolitical tensions heading into 2023.

The tech index was supported by a fall in Treasury yields and economic data showing the labour market is slowing, although it is possible that after heavy tax-loss selling last week, investors were looking for bargains. Continuing jobless claims came slightly ahead of economist’s expectations; however, the labor market remains very tight as unemployment claims are rising from historically low levels and it is likely to take a bit of time before we see deterioration.

Source: Tradingview

With one trading day left in 2022, the stock market is on track for its worst year since 2008. The NASDAQ 100 has been the worst performer among the three main U.S. indices, losing nearly 34% this year, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 are on track to lose over 9% and almost 20%, respectively.

The latest NASDAQ 100 underperformance was driven by more than 31% drop in Tesla Inc over the past two weeks as the electric vehicle maker would continue a weeklong production pause at its Shanghai facility.

Every time the tech heavy index has rallied in 2022, it faced strong selling pressure, amid the highest interest rates over the past 15 years, which are the main culprit for the underperformance of the rate sensitive index. The latest slump is likely to get worse before it gets better, and even as the Fed’s battle with inflation is showing success, as we see signs that inflation has peaked, it will come at the price of a recession next year.

No recession has been more predicted than the one that still hasn’t occurred yet, with number of economists expecting the recession will hit the U.S. economy in the first half of next year, with inflation remaining top risk factor for the stock market in 2023. While its hard to predict if the U.S. economy will face a soft or hard landing in 2023, our baseline scenario for fresh lows next year remains unchanged.

Active traders looking for magnified exposure to U.S. equity indices could consider our 3x Long US Tech100 and -3x Short US Tech100 ETPs.

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Violeta a rejoint Leverage Shares en septembre 2022. Elle est chargée de mener des analyses techniques et des recherches sur les actions et macroéconomiques, fournissant des informations importantes pour aider à façonner les stratégies d’investissement des clients.

Avant de rejoindre LS, Violeta a travaillé dans plusieurs sociétés d’investissement de premier plan en Australie, telles que Tollhurst et Morgans Financial, où elle a passé les 12 dernières années de sa carrière.

Violeta est une technicienne de marché certifiée de l’Australian Technical Analysts Association et est titulaire d’un diplôme d’études supérieures en finance appliquée et investissement de Kaplan Professional (FINSIA), Australie, où elle a été conférencière pendant plusieurs années.

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Sandeep Rao

Recherche

Sandeep a une longue expérience des marchés financiers. Il a débuté sa carrière en tant qu’ingénieur financier au sein d’un hedge fund basé à Chicago. Pendant huit ans, il a travaillé dans différents domaines et organisations, de la division Prime Services de Barclays Capital à l’équipe de recherche sur les indices du Nasdaq (plus récemment).

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