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Hawkish Fed Surprise Spooked the Rally

On Wednesday the Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 50 basis point as widely expected to a range of 4.25%-4.50% during its last policy meeting for 2022, bringing the borrowing costs to the highest level since 2007.

This is the seventh consecutive rate increase for 2022, following four straight 75 basis point hikes, marking the fastest pace over the past 40-years. Policy makers signalled in its economic projections that rates are going higher for longer in order monetary policy to be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to its target of 2%.

The central bank sees at least another 75 basis points of hikes in 2023 with median rates reaching 5.1%, or a target range of 5%-5.25%, up from 4.6% median rate expected at the end of September. GDP growth projections were revised higher to 0.5% vs 0.2% for 2022 but lowered to 0.5% vs 1.2% for 2023. Inflation forecasts were also revised higher to 5.6% vs 5.4% for 2022 and 3.1% vs 2.8% for 2023.

In the press conference Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed’s policies are getting close to restrictive territory and that a rate cuts to 4.1% are likely in 2024, which is above the 3.9% previously projected.

Investors received some positive economic news on Tuesday as the latest U.S. CPI report showed inflation is slowing, raising expectations that the Fed might halt rate hikes in 2023. These expectations are now blown, and equity markets were on a wild roller-coaster over the past two trading sessions as worries the U.S. economy could fall into a recession are rising.

Source: Tradingview

The U.S. benchmark index is on track to lock in its biggest yearly decline since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 and the mildly hawkish surprise from the Fed is likely to temper investor’s expectations for a Christmas rally.

The current rebound has started showing clear signs of deterioration and over the past month the index has been trading sideways, fluctuating between 3,904 and 4,133 suggesting that the bulls are running out of steam.

A break below minor support of 3,904 is highly likely in our view and would confirm a small top reversal pattern. The potential downside target based on the anticipated breakout is 3,770; however, over the medium-term we believe the October low could be re-tested.

Investors looking for magnified exposure to U.S. equity indices could check out our 3x Long US 500 or 3x Short US 500 ETPs.

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Recherche

Sandeep a une longue expérience des marchés financiers. Il a débuté sa carrière en tant qu’ingénieur financier au sein d’un hedge fund basé à Chicago. Pendant huit ans, il a travaillé dans différents domaines et organisations, de la division Prime Services de Barclays Capital à l’équipe de recherche sur les indices du Nasdaq (plus récemment).

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