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FAANG+: Both Market-Leading and Volatility-Averse

Big Tech has never been more relevant than ever before. In the current quarter, investors are largely retreating from the conviction in specific names and investing into broad market ETFs as well as large tech stocks. While investing in the former has the benefit of risk diversification, the latter have benefited from depressed earnings estimates which, upon being beaten, have resulted in flows that boosted their stock valuations at a rate higher than that of the broad market.

However, this is by no means a recent phenomenon.

Historical Trends: Big Tech vs the Market

Let’s consider an equally-weighted basket of ten tech stocks: Meta Platforms (META), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet, Class A (GOOG), Tesla (TSLA), Nvidia (NVDA), Salesforce.com (CRM), and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). This ten-ticker basket is broadly described as the “FAANG+” theme. The market can be represented by the S&P 500 (SPX).

Around the start of the fourth quarter of 2021, the net performance of FAANG+ for the year started to overtake that of the broad market.

As the market took on a distinctively bullish outlook shortly after the end of the second quarter, FAANG+ displayed increasingly strong evidence of directional cues being taken from the market albeit with a distinct outperformance.

2022 saw the market close 20% lower than at the start of the year. In the same period, FAANG+ read the same phenomenon to close more than 50% lower than at the start of the year.

In 2023, in the year till the 19th of May, the performance comparison is even more skewed. While the market is up by 9% from the start of the year, the FAANG+ is up by more than 52%.

Now, the entirety of FAANG+ is represented in the S&P 500 as well. This highlights an important fact: these 10 stocks now represent the “top of the line” of the market and occupy a large portion of the market only limited by weightage limits in the index:

  1. If any company has a full market capitalization (FMC) weight greater than 24%, the company’s weight is capped at 23%;

  2. The sum of the companies with weights greater than 4.8% cannot exceed 50% of the total index weight, failing which weights are readjusted starting from the smallest company until this rule holds true.

If unfettered of these rules, the S&P 500’s net performance would be dominated by the likes of these ten companies.

Quarterly Price and Volatility Trends

A tabulation of volatility (as represented by standard deviation) for each quarter and price changes from the start to the end of the quarter from the start of 2021 till the present reveal some very interesting trends:

Overall trends in volatility indicate that the market tends to be around 7-9 times more volatile than the FAANG+. The lowest point is the 6 times level seen this past quarter while the highest is at the 10-20 times level seen from Q2 through Q4 of this past calendar year. In terms of price changes, the rate of price change for the FAANG+ theme has tended to be less extreme and (generally) more bullish than that in the market.

An Opportunity Over the Market?

With further contractions expected in the market as calls for a recession becomes increasingly more strident, it should be evident that trends impute a higher level of survivability for these highly-recognizable technology-driven companies over other companies, be they large-, mid- or small-cap. This can also be the attribution for the continuing price ratio overvaluation of these companies.

As the market twists and turns over the next few prospectively-tumultuous quarters, it can be expected that FAANG+ will continue to receive disproportionate attention. To capitalise on this opportunity, Leverage Shares has launched the FAANG+ ETP that holds these ten stocks in equal weights. With wide access across the Continent and affordable pricing, tactical trading strategies based around the FAANG+ will provide an extra edge for sophisticated investors.

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Violeta Todorova

Senior Research

Violeta a rejoint Leverage Shares en septembre 2022. Elle est chargée de mener des analyses techniques et des recherches sur les actions et macroéconomiques, fournissant des informations importantes pour aider à façonner les stratégies d’investissement des clients.

Avant de rejoindre LS, Violeta a travaillé dans plusieurs sociétés d’investissement de premier plan en Australie, telles que Tollhurst et Morgans Financial, où elle a passé les 12 dernières années de sa carrière.

Violeta est une technicienne de marché certifiée de l’Australian Technical Analysts Association et est titulaire d’un diplôme d’études supérieures en finance appliquée et investissement de Kaplan Professional (FINSIA), Australie, où elle a été conférencière pendant plusieurs années.

Julian Manoilov

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Julian a étudié l’économie, la psychologie, la sociologie, la politique européenne et la linguistique. Il possède de l’expérience en matière de développement commercial et de marketing grâce à des entreprises qu’il a lui-même créées.

Pour Julian, Leverage Shares est une entreprise innovante dans le domaine de la finance et de la fintech, et il se réjouit toujours de partager les prochaines grandes avancées avec les investisseurs du Royaume-Uni et d’Europe.

Oktay Kavrak

Head of Communications and Strategy

Oktay a rejoint Leverage Shares fin 2019. Il est responsable de la croissance de l’activité à travers des relations clés et le développement de l’activité commerciale sur les marchés anglophones. 

Il a rejoint LS après UniCredit, où il était responsable des relations avec les entreprises pour les multinationales. Il a également travaillé au sein de sociétés telles qu’IBM Bulgarie et DeGiro / FundShare dans le domaine de la finance d’entreprise et de l’administration de fonds.

Oktay est titulaire d’une licence en finance et comptabilité et d’un certificat d’études supérieures en entrepreneuriat du Babson College. Il est également détenteur de la certification CFA.

Sandeep Rao

Recherche

Sandeep a une longue expérience des marchés financiers. Il a débuté sa carrière en tant qu’ingénieur financier au sein d’un hedge fund basé à Chicago. Pendant huit ans, il a travaillé dans différents domaines et organisations, de la division Prime Services de Barclays Capital à l’équipe de recherche sur les indices du Nasdaq (plus récemment).

Sandeep est titulaire d’un master spécialisé en finance et d’un master en administration des affaires de I’Institut de technologie de Chicago.

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