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Is The Airlines Industry Ready To Soar Again?

Are airlines good investments right now?

The COVID-19 pandemic was in many ways a true « black swan » for many stock market sectors. The spate of ensuing lockdowns and government regulations tested the resiliency of many industries. In particular, the airlines industry was particularly hard-hit, as global travel grinded to a standstill amid strict quarantine and entry requirements imposed by many countries.

More than two years later, the airline industry has staged a rocky, tentative recovery. Year-to-date, the US Global Jets ETF (JETS) is still down over 10%. Skyrocketing commodities prices have depressed the margins of airline operators, forcing them to cut costs elsewhere or raise ticket prices to compensate. Consumer have been slow to return to pre-pandemic travel habits as soaring inflation and rising rates curbed household spending. Fears of an impending recession have also promoted many to tighten their budgets in anticipation.

Spotting market inefficiencies in the airlines industry

Still, the current high volatility (and arguably bear) market offers attentive investors some potent trading opportunities. Earlier on March 23rd, Leverage Shares Director Oktay Kavrak tweeted about the possibility of setting up a pairs trade using Boeing (BA) and Airbus (AIR).

Pair trades are a type of arbitrage involving involve long and short positions in two different stocks with a positive correlation. To initiate a pairs trade, a trader must first identify two historically correlated stocks that have recently diverged in performance.

Once this has been identified, the trader takes a long position in the underperforming stock and sells short the outperforming stock. Profiting from a pairs trade relies on both stocks converging on their historical correlation, as the underperforming stock appreciates, and the outperforming stock falls.

Below I’ve plotted a chart of Boeing and Airbus stock’s YTD performance. We see that around April 25th, both stocks diverged significantly, with Boeing underperforming and Airbus outperforming.

As of writing, Boeing and Airbus have a negative correlation of -0.39 based on YTD data. Historically, the correlation between both stocks has been significantly higher, at around 0.80 based over a trailing 10-year period from 2012 to present.

Instruments to use

Investors looking to set up a pairs trade should therefore go long in Boeing and short in Airbus. For the former, buying the ticket should be sufficient. However, gaining short exposure for the latter is a bit more complicated.

Shorting a stock requires the use of portfolio margin. This is risky as margin is subject to borrow rates (which are expected to go up as various central banks initiate interest rate hikes) and the ever-present danger of a margin call should the value of the shorted security suddenly skyrocket.

Investors can also go short via put options. However, this exposes an investor’s capital to theta decay (the rate at which an options premium loses value over time), and implied volatility (IV) crush (the loss in an options premium due to suddenly decreased volatility, typically after earning are released). Options also expire, so a degree of market timing is required which causes additional risk.

A better way of gaining short (or long exposure) is by using Leverage Share’s suite of exchange-traded products, which offer the potential for a higher risk/reward profile via built-in daily three times (3x) resetting leverage.

A hypothetical investor looking to initiate a pairs trade can therefore go long on Boeing with 3x leverage by buying BA3, while going short on Airbus with 3x leverage by buying AIRS.

The final word

Traders interested in deploying a pairs trade strategy for the aforementioned airline stocks can manage their risk exposure using ETPs like BA3 and AIRS.

The physically backed nature of both ETPs ensures good liquidity and a narrow bid-ask spread, allowing you to enter and exit positions easily. Your risk is also capped based on how many shares you hold, making position sizing easy (just buy and sell shares) compared to maintaining margin requirements or calculating options delta exposure.

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Violeta Todorova

Senior Research

Violeta a rejoint Leverage Shares en septembre 2022. Elle est chargée de mener des analyses techniques et des recherches sur les actions et macroéconomiques, fournissant des informations importantes pour aider à façonner les stratégies d’investissement des clients.

Avant de rejoindre LS, Violeta a travaillé dans plusieurs sociétés d’investissement de premier plan en Australie, telles que Tollhurst et Morgans Financial, où elle a passé les 12 dernières années de sa carrière.

Violeta est une technicienne de marché certifiée de l’Australian Technical Analysts Association et est titulaire d’un diplôme d’études supérieures en finance appliquée et investissement de Kaplan Professional (FINSIA), Australie, où elle a été conférencière pendant plusieurs années.

Julian Manoilov

Marketing Lead

Julian a étudié l’économie, la psychologie, la sociologie, la politique européenne et la linguistique. Il possède de l’expérience en matière de développement commercial et de marketing grâce à des entreprises qu’il a lui-même créées.

Pour Julian, Leverage Shares est une entreprise innovante dans le domaine de la finance et de la fintech, et il se réjouit toujours de partager les prochaines grandes avancées avec les investisseurs du Royaume-Uni et d’Europe.

Oktay Kavrak

Head of Communications and Strategy

Oktay a rejoint Leverage Shares fin 2019. Il est responsable de la croissance de l’activité à travers des relations clés et le développement de l’activité commerciale sur les marchés anglophones. 

Il a rejoint LS après UniCredit, où il était responsable des relations avec les entreprises pour les multinationales. Il a également travaillé au sein de sociétés telles qu’IBM Bulgarie et DeGiro / FundShare dans le domaine de la finance d’entreprise et de l’administration de fonds.

Oktay est titulaire d’une licence en finance et comptabilité et d’un certificat d’études supérieures en entrepreneuriat du Babson College. Il est également détenteur de la certification CFA.

Sandeep Rao

Recherche

Sandeep a une longue expérience des marchés financiers. Il a débuté sa carrière en tant qu’ingénieur financier au sein d’un hedge fund basé à Chicago. Pendant huit ans, il a travaillé dans différents domaines et organisations, de la division Prime Services de Barclays Capital à l’équipe de recherche sur les indices du Nasdaq (plus récemment).

Sandeep est titulaire d’un master spécialisé en finance et d’un master en administration des affaires de I’Institut de technologie de Chicago.

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