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“Magnificent 7” deflates

  • What goes up, eventually goes down
  • Times “change”, but human behavior doesn’t

It has been a euphoric year for major US indices, which remained in positive territory despite the increasingly challenging macro environment this year.

However, most gains were driven by investor hype surrounding AI and came from a narrow selection of stocks labelled by the media as the “Magnificent 7”: Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia, and Tesla,

These leading tech companies have been critical in lifting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 index into double-digit returns. Excluding their contribution, both indices would have reverted to a negative year-to-date performance.

In their recent earnings release, they all posted robust numbers, beating expectations, except for Tesla. It missed estimates across the board as Elon Musk cited high-interest rates as a major reason for the abysmal Q3 results. This setback has seen Tesla’s stock plummet approximately 33% from its 52-week highs.

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Nvidia is also up for a major correction. The leading chipmaker is facing a potential cancellation of a $5 billion China order due to US curbs. This could be the potential catalyst that causes Nvidia to break a critical $395 support level and fall all the way to $375, as it is facing a declining head and shoulders pattern. If it fails to hold the $375 level, this could spell disaster and a potential nosedive to $325.

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The AI mania bubble burst is another major reason as to when these seven heavy hitters are due for or are in the middle of a correction.

Times change, but human behavior does not. Interest from Google trends in key phrases such as “Artificial intelligence” and “AI stocks” had declined substantially since they peaked in June, as visible by a downward pointing red arrow.

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If we illustrate those seven tech giants as one, it would be the “Magnificent 7 ETF”. It has formed a triple top that has failed to break the resistance level three consecutive times, over the past few months, and now the rally is deflating, as triple tops usually do not work in favour of the bulls.

So far, Nvidia and Tesla are leading the downward trend, but others might follow soon.

Traders are facing a dangerous cocktail of high-interest rates, escalating geopolitical conflicts, oil prices spiking, and inflation creeping up again, causing panic among market participants. “Big 7” collectively lost nearly $2 trillion of their market capitalization from their 52-week highs, as this trade is reversing.

As the tech titans tumble, so will the mighty S&P 500, as the group collectively accounts for around 30% of the SPX’s total market capitalization.

Traders can long constituents of the “Big 7” stocks using our:
1x Apple , 2x Apple, 3x Apple

1x Microsoft , 2x Microsoft , 3x Microsoft

1x Facebook , 2x Facebook , 3x Facebook

1x Amazon , 2x Amazon , 3x Amazon

1x Alphabet , 2x Alphabet , 3x Alphabet

2x NVIDIA , 3x NVIDIA

1x Tesla , 2x Tesla , 3x Tesla

Traders can long S&P 500 index using our 3x US 500 , 5x Long US 500 .

Alternatively, they can short one of the “Big 7” stocks using our:

-1x Apple, -3x Apple

-1x Microsoft , -3x Microsoft

-3x Facebook

-3x Amazon

-1x Alphabet , -3x Alphabet

-1x NVIDIA , -3x NVIDIA

-1x Tesla , -2x Tesla , -3x Tesla

Or they can short S&P 500 index using our -3x US 500

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Violeta Todorova

Senior Research

Violeta a rejoint Leverage Shares en septembre 2022. Elle est chargée de mener des analyses techniques et des recherches sur les actions et macroéconomiques, fournissant des informations importantes pour aider à façonner les stratégies d’investissement des clients.

Avant de rejoindre LS, Violeta a travaillé dans plusieurs sociétés d’investissement de premier plan en Australie, telles que Tollhurst et Morgans Financial, où elle a passé les 12 dernières années de sa carrière.

Violeta est une technicienne de marché certifiée de l’Australian Technical Analysts Association et est titulaire d’un diplôme d’études supérieures en finance appliquée et investissement de Kaplan Professional (FINSIA), Australie, où elle a été conférencière pendant plusieurs années.

Julian Manoilov

Marketing Lead

Julian a étudié l’économie, la psychologie, la sociologie, la politique européenne et la linguistique. Il possède de l’expérience en matière de développement commercial et de marketing grâce à des entreprises qu’il a lui-même créées.

Pour Julian, Leverage Shares est une entreprise innovante dans le domaine de la finance et de la fintech, et il se réjouit toujours de partager les prochaines grandes avancées avec les investisseurs du Royaume-Uni et d’Europe.

Oktay Kavrak

Head of Communications and Strategy

Oktay a rejoint Leverage Shares fin 2019. Il est responsable de la croissance de l’activité à travers des relations clés et le développement de l’activité commerciale sur les marchés anglophones. 

Il a rejoint LS après UniCredit, où il était responsable des relations avec les entreprises pour les multinationales. Il a également travaillé au sein de sociétés telles qu’IBM Bulgarie et DeGiro / FundShare dans le domaine de la finance d’entreprise et de l’administration de fonds.

Oktay est titulaire d’une licence en finance et comptabilité et d’un certificat d’études supérieures en entrepreneuriat du Babson College. Il est également détenteur de la certification CFA.

Sandeep Rao

Recherche

Sandeep a une longue expérience des marchés financiers. Il a débuté sa carrière en tant qu’ingénieur financier au sein d’un hedge fund basé à Chicago. Pendant huit ans, il a travaillé dans différents domaines et organisations, de la division Prime Services de Barclays Capital à l’équipe de recherche sur les indices du Nasdaq (plus récemment).

Sandeep est titulaire d’un master spécialisé en finance et d’un master en administration des affaires de I’Institut de technologie de Chicago.

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