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Markets Are Searching for Direction

Following the January Nonfarm Payroll report, which showed a net gain of 517K jobs and the unemployment rate dropping to a 53-year low of 3.4%, investors feared that the hotter-than-expected jobs report would reignite a hawkish twist from policymakers.

In a highly anticipated appearance at an event in Washington, D.C. on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell largely repeated its prior remarks he delivered as part of the last Fed’s policy announcement. He reiterated that the Fed would need more rate hikes and hold the policy at restrictive levels for a period of time as the battle against inflation is likely to be long.

While he also admitted that the jobs report was stronger than anyone anticipated, reinforcing his view that it will take a long time to ease inflation to the Fed’s target of 2%. His comments that a renewed increase in immigration after a sharp slowdown earlier in the pandemic seems to be alleviating the labor shortage, calmed the market and investors were relieved from the fact that he didn’t tilt his stance and take an aggressively hawkish turn.

Powell’s comments on Tuesday follow his press conference last week after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis point, where he said that the central bank believes it’s making solid progress in bringing down inflation.

Markets are now pricing in 100% probability that the Fed will hike rates by 25 basis point on the 22nd of March and 76% odds for another 25 basis point increase on the 3rd of May. That would bring the federal funds rate to a 5%-5.25% range, which December Fed projections indicated would be the likely peak of the cycle.

After Friday’s Nonfarm Payroll report Wall Street sees around 40% odds that the Fed might make one additional rate hike, up from 3.6% just a week ago. However, markets still see more than 60% chance that the Fed will cut its key rate to 4.75%-5% by year’s end.

Source: Tradingview

Equity markets reflect the economic and geopolitical landscape, which remains highly uncertain at present. The market is trying to discount two different scenarios, both of which are driven by what the Fed is going to do. The two scenarios are if the U.S. economy falls into a recession or not, which is highly dependent on how quickly the Fed nears the end of its rate hiking cycle. However, according to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen the probability of a U.S. recession this year is low as job growth remains strong and unemployment is low.

After pulling back on Friday and Monday, following the latest jobs report shock, equity markets found its footing on Tuesday and rebounded strongly as traders parsed the latest remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

While the current rally could extend further, the index is facing a band of overhead resistance between 4,200 and 4,320 where the bulls might take a more cautious approach. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is very close to key support levels suggesting that the rally may not run for much longer and a pull back could be seen soon.

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Violeta a rejoint Leverage Shares en septembre 2022. Elle est chargée de mener des analyses techniques et des recherches sur les actions et macroéconomiques, fournissant des informations importantes pour aider à façonner les stratégies d’investissement des clients.

Avant de rejoindre LS, Violeta a travaillé dans plusieurs sociétés d’investissement de premier plan en Australie, telles que Tollhurst et Morgans Financial, où elle a passé les 12 dernières années de sa carrière.

Violeta est une technicienne de marché certifiée de l’Australian Technical Analysts Association et est titulaire d’un diplôme d’études supérieures en finance appliquée et investissement de Kaplan Professional (FINSIA), Australie, où elle a été conférencière pendant plusieurs années.

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Sandeep Rao

Recherche

Sandeep a une longue expérience des marchés financiers. Il a débuté sa carrière en tant qu’ingénieur financier au sein d’un hedge fund basé à Chicago. Pendant huit ans, il a travaillé dans différents domaines et organisations, de la division Prime Services de Barclays Capital à l’équipe de recherche sur les indices du Nasdaq (plus récemment).

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