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Would the Bear Strike Again?

Building permits in the U.S. tumbled 11.2% from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.342 million in November 2022, well below market expectations of 1.485 million. Building permits which are a proxy for future construction, have been falling as soaring prices and rising mortgage rates have hit demand and activity, and marked the lowest level since June 2020.

Existing home sales in the U.S. slumped to a two and a half year low, plunging 7.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million in November 2022, much worse than market expectations of a 5.4% drop.

This is the tenth consecutive month of falls in home sales, which is the lowest level since May 2020, as the Fed’s aggressive interest rate hiking cycle is having a huge impact on housing. Despite demand being down, supply remains tight, keeping home prices elevated, albeit the pace of increases is slowing.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released on the Thursday GDP growth rate data, showing the U.S. economy grew at an annualized 3.2% on quarter in Q3 2022, better than 2.9% in the second estimate, and rebounding from two straight quarters of contraction.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 2,000 to 216,000 in the week ending 17th of December, below market expectations of 220,000 and extending signals of a stubbornly tight labor market, adding to hawkish projections for the Federal Reserve along with the upward revision to the US GDP.

Labor market resilience is keeping the U.S. central bank on its aggressive policy tightening campaign, with the Fed last week projecting at least an additional 75 basis points of increases in borrowing costs by the end of 2023. Companies are likely to stop hiring before starting layoffs as employers have been struggling to find labor during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Overall, equity markets suffered its worst year since the Global Financial Crisis, crushed under the boot of rising interest rates, supply chain disruptions and ongoing global energy crisis. These joined forces generated the greatest inflation shock over the past four decades, forcing the central bank to aggressively hike rates.

Source: Tradingview

The current short-term strength of the market is likely to be a temporary relief rally and the overall weakness in 2022 could extend into the first quarter of next year, as equity valuations in the U.S. remain high by historical standards and economic data points to a likely upcoming recession spelling risks for corporate earnings.

Higher interest rates are harmful for riskier assets like equities because they can compress valuation multiples apart from inflict damage on the overall economy. Some of the valuation adjustment has already played out, with the S&P 500 earnings multiple falling sharply this year. However, the earnings impact is not fully priced in and could be a big driver in 2023.

While the lagging indicators are showing that the U.S. economy is still fine, the forward-looking indicators are flushing red. The housing market is starting to crack, new business orders are declining, and the yield curve is deeply inverted. “Interest rates” and “inflation” were in most headlines in 2022, but “recession” is likely to take the throne in 2023.

The strong rebound from the October lows has already reversed direction and it looks like Santa won’t be coming to town this year. We have repeatedly warned in previous articles that further weakness is ahead, and our baseline scenario for a likely new low likely being formed in the first half of 2023 remains unchanged. In our view levels to 3,400 in the coming months appear feasible.

Active traders looking for magnified exposure to U.S. equity indices may consider our 3x Long US 500 and -3x Short US 500 ETPs.

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Violeta Todorova

Senior Research

Violeta a rejoint Leverage Shares en septembre 2022. Elle est chargée de mener des analyses techniques et des recherches sur les actions et macroéconomiques, fournissant des informations importantes pour aider à façonner les stratégies d’investissement des clients.

Avant de rejoindre LS, Violeta a travaillé dans plusieurs sociétés d’investissement de premier plan en Australie, telles que Tollhurst et Morgans Financial, où elle a passé les 12 dernières années de sa carrière.

Violeta est une technicienne de marché certifiée de l’Australian Technical Analysts Association et est titulaire d’un diplôme d’études supérieures en finance appliquée et investissement de Kaplan Professional (FINSIA), Australie, où elle a été conférencière pendant plusieurs années.

Julian Manoilov

Marketing Lead

Julian a étudié l’économie, la psychologie, la sociologie, la politique européenne et la linguistique. Il possède de l’expérience en matière de développement commercial et de marketing grâce à des entreprises qu’il a lui-même créées.

Pour Julian, Leverage Shares est une entreprise innovante dans le domaine de la finance et de la fintech, et il se réjouit toujours de partager les prochaines grandes avancées avec les investisseurs du Royaume-Uni et d’Europe.

Oktay Kavrak

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Oktay a rejoint Leverage Shares fin 2019. Il est responsable de la croissance de l’activité à travers des relations clés et le développement de l’activité commerciale sur les marchés anglophones. 

Il a rejoint LS après UniCredit, où il était responsable des relations avec les entreprises pour les multinationales. Il a également travaillé au sein de sociétés telles qu’IBM Bulgarie et DeGiro / FundShare dans le domaine de la finance d’entreprise et de l’administration de fonds.

Oktay est titulaire d’une licence en finance et comptabilité et d’un certificat d’études supérieures en entrepreneuriat du Babson College. Il est également détenteur de la certification CFA.

Sandeep Rao

Recherche

Sandeep a une longue expérience des marchés financiers. Il a débuté sa carrière en tant qu’ingénieur financier au sein d’un hedge fund basé à Chicago. Pendant huit ans, il a travaillé dans différents domaines et organisations, de la division Prime Services de Barclays Capital à l’équipe de recherche sur les indices du Nasdaq (plus récemment).

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