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S&P 500: Champions and Losers

Institutional investor concerns about the U.S. equity market being overvalued have been around since 2017. Despite a large percentage of institutional investors buying into top-line stocks such as Tesla and Amazon, this concern hasn’t really subsided. Surveys reported that most Fortune 500 CFOs and fund managers held this belief in 2020. Mr. Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, reiterated this belief in 2021 and added that the market will (or should) correct soon.

Given recent performance of the S&P 500, some might arrive at the quick conclusion that there is every indication of a recession being anticipated. However, a long-term study of trends in individual securities and sectors highlight that this is not the case: market corrections are aiming for a reset in the overvaluation seen in some key sectors and stocks.

Rises and Drops

Let us consider yearly horizons starting from November 2019 till 2021, with an additional window till the 25th of February 2022. The index is analysed via the holdings of S&P 500 ETF (SPX). The contribution of each security within SPX to the total movement of the SPX is estimated and termed the “Contribution Index” and the total change in stock price within each window is termed the “Price Delta”.

The Top “Rise” and “Drop” Leaders as per the highest and lowest “Price Deltas” yield some fascinating results:

Based on the deltas, it could be implied that movement restrictions had propelled Amazon and Netflix to a massive year-on-year delta by the end of 2020. Added to this were the concerns over the pandemic that drove pharmaceutical and diagnostic companies to high deltas as well. Meanwhile, companies associated with travel and energy companies had significant drops. By the end of 2021, it could be implied that Alphabet’s steady growth was the fuel that drove the index while pharmaceutical companies began to drag. In the months since November 2021, however, construction, energy and food companies had massive rises while “tech” giants such as Amazon, Alphabet and Tesla were collapsing.

But why is the S&P 500 collapsing? This is attributable to the weighing schema: “Tech” companies have very high weights and an outsized effect on the index. Thus, even when the stock price upticks in these types of companies were minimal, the index would go up. By the same token, when these stocks slip, it gives the appearance of a massive fall. For instance, in the November 2019-20 window, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Apple is estimated to have contributed about 60% of the uptick in the index while in the three-month window between November 2021 till February, these same stocks have contributed to 59% of the downturn seen in the index.

In holistic terms, while a number of “non-tech” stocks have been rising in the three-month window, this has little to do with the economy. While it is true that the US economy is facing 40-year highs in inflation, what’s also true is that nearly every major stock in every major industry is massively overvalued and there is every indication that this is being corrected.

The Ratio Squeeze

Ratios form multi-dimensional boundaries when it comes to instrument indicators. In itself, no stock should in theory be valued too high relative to others in its industry or classification. In practice, this has not been the case. Given the fact that US Treasury yields have been too low to guarantee “safe harbour” from inflationary rises for the past 20 years and more, there has been a « crowding effect » in other public markets such as equities. Narratives on new technology and over-optimistic impact on market share have rarely translated into real-time eternal dominance which, in turn, means that projections reflected over a long-term horizon becomes more and more speculative.

Let us consider the Top Two overweight and underweight in terms of one ratio – the Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio – for each industry classification at the start of each window period all the way till February 2022.

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Violeta Todorova

Senior Research

Violeta a rejoint Leverage Shares en septembre 2022. Elle est chargée de mener des analyses techniques et des recherches sur les actions et macroéconomiques, fournissant des informations importantes pour aider à façonner les stratégies d’investissement des clients.

Avant de rejoindre LS, Violeta a travaillé dans plusieurs sociétés d’investissement de premier plan en Australie, telles que Tollhurst et Morgans Financial, où elle a passé les 12 dernières années de sa carrière.

Violeta est une technicienne de marché certifiée de l’Australian Technical Analysts Association et est titulaire d’un diplôme d’études supérieures en finance appliquée et investissement de Kaplan Professional (FINSIA), Australie, où elle a été conférencière pendant plusieurs années.

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Oktay a rejoint Leverage Shares fin 2019. Il est responsable de la croissance de l’activité à travers des relations clés et le développement de l’activité commerciale sur les marchés anglophones. 

Il a rejoint LS après UniCredit, où il était responsable des relations avec les entreprises pour les multinationales. Il a également travaillé au sein de sociétés telles qu’IBM Bulgarie et DeGiro / FundShare dans le domaine de la finance d’entreprise et de l’administration de fonds.

Oktay est titulaire d’une licence en finance et comptabilité et d’un certificat d’études supérieures en entrepreneuriat du Babson College. Il est également détenteur de la certification CFA.

Sandeep Rao

Recherche

Sandeep a une longue expérience des marchés financiers. Il a débuté sa carrière en tant qu’ingénieur financier au sein d’un hedge fund basé à Chicago. Pendant huit ans, il a travaillé dans différents domaines et organisations, de la division Prime Services de Barclays Capital à l’équipe de recherche sur les indices du Nasdaq (plus récemment).

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