fbpx

Hawkish Fed Surprise Spooked the Rally

Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.

On Wednesday the Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 50 basis point as widely expected to a range of 4.25%-4.50% during its last policy meeting for 2022, bringing the borrowing costs to the highest level since 2007.

This is the seventh consecutive rate increase for 2022, following four straight 75 basis point hikes, marking the fastest pace over the past 40-years. Policy makers signalled in its economic projections that rates are going higher for longer in order monetary policy to be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to its target of 2%.

The central bank sees at least another 75 basis points of hikes in 2023 with median rates reaching 5.1%, or a target range of 5%-5.25%, up from 4.6% median rate expected at the end of September. GDP growth projections were revised higher to 0.5% vs 0.2% for 2022 but lowered to 0.5% vs 1.2% for 2023. Inflation forecasts were also revised higher to 5.6% vs 5.4% for 2022 and 3.1% vs 2.8% for 2023.

In the press conference Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed’s policies are getting close to restrictive territory and that a rate cuts to 4.1% are likely in 2024, which is above the 3.9% previously projected.

Investors received some positive economic news on Tuesday as the latest U.S. CPI report showed inflation is slowing, raising expectations that the Fed might halt rate hikes in 2023. These expectations are now blown, and equity markets were on a wild roller-coaster over the past two trading sessions as worries the U.S. economy could fall into a recession are rising.

Source: Tradingview

The U.S. benchmark index is on track to lock in its biggest yearly decline since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 and the mildly hawkish surprise from the Fed is likely to temper investor’s expectations for a Christmas rally.

The current rebound has started showing clear signs of deterioration and over the past month the index has been trading sideways, fluctuating between 3,904 and 4,133 suggesting that the bulls are running out of steam.

A break below minor support of 3,904 is highly likely in our view and would confirm a small top reversal pattern. The potential downside target based on the anticipated breakout is 3,770; however, over the medium-term we believe the October low could be re-tested.

Investors looking for magnified exposure to U.S. equity indices could check out our 3x Long US 500 or 3x Short US 500 ETPs.

Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.

Related Posts

Gold is in a healthy correction and higher price levels are likely by year end.
Gold is in a healthy correction and higher price levels are likely by year end.
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Violeta Todorova
Gold is in a healthy correction and higher price levels are likely by year end.
Gold is in a healthy correction and higher price levels are likely by year end.
Gold is in a healthy correction and higher price levels are likely by year end.
Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Boyan Girginov
Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Supply, demand disequilibrium and lower US rates could squeeze the non-precious metal
Q2 is poised for European stocks’ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Q2 is poised for European stocks’ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Sandeep Rao
Q2 is poised for European stocks’ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Q2 is poised for European stocks’ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Q2 is poised for European stocks’ turnaround and rising interest in energy stocks
Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Violeta Todorova
Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail the economic recovery.
What is an ETF? How does an ETF work? Key characteristics of ETFs.
What is an ETF? How does an ETF work? Key characteristics of ETFs.
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Boyan Girginov
What is an ETF? How does an ETF work? Key characteristics of ETFs.
What is an ETF? How does an ETF work? Key characteristics of ETFs.
What is an ETF? How does an ETF work? Key characteristics of ETFs.
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Pawel Uchman
A quick primer on leveraged instruments available in markets today.
A quick primer on leveraged instruments available in markets today.
Violeta-540x540-1.jpg
Sandeep Rao
A quick primer on leveraged instruments available in markets today.
A quick primer on leveraged instruments available in markets today.
A quick primer on leveraged instruments available in markets today.

Violeta Todorova

Senior Research

Violeta è entrata a far parte di Leverage Shares nel settembre 2022. È responsabile dello svolgimento di analisi tecniche e ricerche macroeconomiche ed azionarie, fornendo pregiate informazioni per aiutare a definire le strategie di investimento per i clienti.

Prima di cominciare con LS, Violeta ha lavorato presso diverse società di investimento di alto profilo in Australia, come Tollhurst e Morgans Financial, dove ha trascorso gli ultimi 12 anni della sua carriera.

Violeta è un tecnico di mercato certificato dall’Australian Technical Analysts Association e ha conseguito un diploma post-laurea in finanza applicata e investimenti presso Kaplan Professional (FINSIA), Australia, dove è stata docente per diversi anni.

Julian Manoilov

Marketing Lead

Julian è entrato a far parte di Leverage Shares nel 2018 come parte della prima espansione della società in Europa orientale. È responsabile della progettazione di strategie di marketing e della promozione della notorietà del marchio.

Oktay Kavrak

Head of Communications and Strategy

Oktay è entrato a far parte di Leverage Shares alla fine del 2019. È responsabile della crescita aziendale, mantenendo relazioni chiave e sviluppando attività di vendita nei mercati di lingua inglese.

È entrato in LS da UniCredit, dove è stato responsabile delle relazioni aziendali per le multinazionali. La sua precedente esperienza è in finanza aziendale e amministrazione di fondi in società come IBM Bulgaria e DeGiro / FundShare.

Oktay ha conseguito una laurea in Finanza e contabilità ed un certificato post-laurea in Imprenditoria presso il Babson College. Ha ottenuto anche la certificazione CFA.

Sandeep Rao

Research
Sandeep è entrato a far parte di Leverage Shares nel settembre 2020. È responsabile della ricerca sulle linee di prodotto esistenti e nuove, su asset class e strategie, con particolare riguardo all’analisi degli eventi attuali ed i loro sviluppi. Sandeep ha una lunga esperienza nei mercati finanziari. Iniziata in un hedge fund di Chicago come ingegnere finanziario, la sua carriera è proseguita in numerose società ed organizzazioni, nel corso di 8 anni – da Barclays (Capital’s Prime Services Division) al più recente Index Research Team di Nasdaq. Sandeep detiene un M.S. in Finanza ed un MBA all’Illinois Institute of Technology di Chicago.

Gold Retreats But Rally is Not Over

Copper Ready to Explode

Q2 2024 Market Outlook: Rocky Road Ahead

What is an ETF? (Exchange Traded Fund)

How Do Leverage Shares ETPs Trade in Multiple Currencies

Currency Impact