Gold has been trading in a strong up trend since November 2022 with recent
price action rising to $2,085, re-visiting its all-time high. A sharp pull
back unfolded over the past two weeks while the U.S. dollar has been rising
concurrently.
The dollar strength has been a component to the fall in gold; however, the
decline is not isolated to just dollar strength. Profit-taking and the
rebound in U.S. Treasury yields were also major contributors. All of these
factors are likely to be a short-term obstacle while the long-term outlook
for the precious metal continues to remain bullish.
Global interest rates are already or close to peak levels, while inflation
has been decelerating and the U.S. dollar has been drifting lower over the
past six months, which has been the reason for the recent rally to a new
all-time high.
Source: Tradingview
On Thursday the price of gold broke below its minor support of $1,970 which
suggests that further fall to $1,950 is on the cards. A break below minor
support of $1,950 would signal an extension of the current pullback in the
near-term with strong support seen at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ratio
which crosses at $1,907.
Global demand concerns have deteriorated sentiment towards commodities in
general in recent times. However, strong demand and limited supply growth
are likely to support prices in the long-term.
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