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Oil Drops to Bargain Hunting Levels

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Last week crude oil prices have been trading lower after weaker Chinese economic data reversed the price boost received from Saudi Arabia’s commitment to cut output in July.

This week commenced with a further decline in crude oil prices with West Texas Intermediate dropping to $66.80. Traders are cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. Although the CME FedWatch tool indicates an 80% probability of the Fed pausing the hikes, investors remain apprehensive about the possibility of resumption next month.

On Tuesday, oil prices rebounded as bargain hunters seized the opportunity to accumulate at lower levels near key support. The impressive drop in U.S. headline inflation was another positive factor boosting the price further.

However, the gains are limited so far due to investor wariness ahead of crucial policy decisions by central banks and muted oil demand recovery from the biggest crude importer – China.

A screenshot of a graph

Description automatically generated with low confidence

Source: Tradingview

Over the past three months, the price of crude oil has exhibited sideways trading, fluctuating within the range of $63.64 to $81.28. More recently, in the last four weeks, prices have been confined to an even tighter range, oscillating between $66.80 and $75.06.

The daily Relative Strength Index indicator has bounced off its up trend line pointing to likely higher price levels in the short-term. The current set up on the chart suggests a rise to $73.00 – $74.00 could unfold in the coming days. Over the medium-term, price action is likely to continue to trade sideways.

The oil market finds itself entangled in a tug-of-war between two opposing forces. On one side, bearish asset allocators highlight the prospects of monetary contraction, while on the other side, bullish oil speculators anticipate diminishing inventories in the second half of 2023.

Market confidence that demand would surpass supply over the course of the year is waning. For market participants to regain confidence and build long positions, they would likely require substantial inventory declines.

On Tuesday OPEC left its forecast for 2023 global oil demand growth steady for a fourth month in a raw, despite warning that the global economy is facing rising uncertainty and slower growth in the second half of the year. OPEC’s economic growth forecast for 2023 remains unchanged at 2.6%, however the cartel noted that momentum is slowing.

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Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.

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Violeta Todorova

Senior Research

Violeta è entrata a far parte di Leverage Shares nel settembre 2022. È responsabile dello svolgimento di analisi tecniche e ricerche macroeconomiche ed azionarie, fornendo pregiate informazioni per aiutare a definire le strategie di investimento per i clienti.

Prima di cominciare con LS, Violeta ha lavorato presso diverse società di investimento di alto profilo in Australia, come Tollhurst e Morgans Financial, dove ha trascorso gli ultimi 12 anni della sua carriera.

Violeta è un tecnico di mercato certificato dall’Australian Technical Analysts Association e ha conseguito un diploma post-laurea in finanza applicata e investimenti presso Kaplan Professional (FINSIA), Australia, dove è stata docente per diversi anni.

Julian Manoilov

Marketing Lead

Julian è entrato a far parte di Leverage Shares nel 2018 come parte della prima espansione della società in Europa orientale. È responsabile della progettazione di strategie di marketing e della promozione della notorietà del marchio.

Oktay Kavrak

Head of Communications and Strategy

Oktay è entrato a far parte di Leverage Shares alla fine del 2019. È responsabile della crescita aziendale, mantenendo relazioni chiave e sviluppando attività di vendita nei mercati di lingua inglese.

È entrato in LS da UniCredit, dove è stato responsabile delle relazioni aziendali per le multinazionali. La sua precedente esperienza è in finanza aziendale e amministrazione di fondi in società come IBM Bulgaria e DeGiro / FundShare.

Oktay ha conseguito una laurea in Finanza e contabilità ed un certificato post-laurea in Imprenditoria presso il Babson College. Ha ottenuto anche la certificazione CFA.

Sandeep Rao

Research
Sandeep è entrato a far parte di Leverage Shares nel settembre 2020. È responsabile della ricerca sulle linee di prodotto esistenti e nuove, su asset class e strategie, con particolare riguardo all’analisi degli eventi attuali ed i loro sviluppi. Sandeep ha una lunga esperienza nei mercati finanziari. Iniziata in un hedge fund di Chicago come ingegnere finanziario, la sua carriera è proseguita in numerose società ed organizzazioni, nel corso di 8 anni – da Barclays (Capital’s Prime Services Division) al più recente Index Research Team di Nasdaq. Sandeep detiene un M.S. in Finanza ed un MBA all’Illinois Institute of Technology di Chicago.

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