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Would the Bear Strike Again?

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Building permits in the U.S. tumbled 11.2% from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.342 million in November 2022, well below market expectations of 1.485 million. Building permits which are a proxy for future construction, have been falling as soaring prices and rising mortgage rates have hit demand and activity, and marked the lowest level since June 2020.

Existing home sales in the U.S. slumped to a two and a half year low, plunging 7.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million in November 2022, much worse than market expectations of a 5.4% drop.

This is the tenth consecutive month of falls in home sales, which is the lowest level since May 2020, as the Fed’s aggressive interest rate hiking cycle is having a huge impact on housing. Despite demand being down, supply remains tight, keeping home prices elevated, albeit the pace of increases is slowing.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released on the Thursday GDP growth rate data, showing the U.S. economy grew at an annualized 3.2% on quarter in Q3 2022, better than 2.9% in the second estimate, and rebounding from two straight quarters of contraction.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 2,000 to 216,000 in the week ending 17th of December, below market expectations of 220,000 and extending signals of a stubbornly tight labor market, adding to hawkish projections for the Federal Reserve along with the upward revision to the US GDP.

Labor market resilience is keeping the U.S. central bank on its aggressive policy tightening campaign, with the Fed last week projecting at least an additional 75 basis points of increases in borrowing costs by the end of 2023. Companies are likely to stop hiring before starting layoffs as employers have been struggling to find labor during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Overall, equity markets suffered its worst year since the Global Financial Crisis, crushed under the boot of rising interest rates, supply chain disruptions and ongoing global energy crisis. These joined forces generated the greatest inflation shock over the past four decades, forcing the central bank to aggressively hike rates.

Source: Tradingview

The current short-term strength of the market is likely to be a temporary relief rally and the overall weakness in 2022 could extend into the first quarter of next year, as equity valuations in the U.S. remain high by historical standards and economic data points to a likely upcoming recession spelling risks for corporate earnings.

Higher interest rates are harmful for riskier assets like equities because they can compress valuation multiples apart from inflict damage on the overall economy. Some of the valuation adjustment has already played out, with the S&P 500 earnings multiple falling sharply this year. However, the earnings impact is not fully priced in and could be a big driver in 2023.

While the lagging indicators are showing that the U.S. economy is still fine, the forward-looking indicators are flushing red. The housing market is starting to crack, new business orders are declining, and the yield curve is deeply inverted. “Interest rates” and “inflation” were in most headlines in 2022, but “recession” is likely to take the throne in 2023.

The strong rebound from the October lows has already reversed direction and it looks like Santa won’t be coming to town this year. We have repeatedly warned in previous articles that further weakness is ahead, and our baseline scenario for a likely new low likely being formed in the first half of 2023 remains unchanged. In our view levels to 3,400 in the coming months appear feasible.

Active traders looking for magnified exposure to U.S. equity indices may consider our 3x Long US 500 and -3x Short US 500 ETPs.

Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.

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Violeta Todorova

Senior Research

Violeta è entrata a far parte di Leverage Shares nel settembre 2022. È responsabile dello svolgimento di analisi tecniche e ricerche macroeconomiche ed azionarie, fornendo pregiate informazioni per aiutare a definire le strategie di investimento per i clienti.

Prima di cominciare con LS, Violeta ha lavorato presso diverse società di investimento di alto profilo in Australia, come Tollhurst e Morgans Financial, dove ha trascorso gli ultimi 12 anni della sua carriera.

Violeta è un tecnico di mercato certificato dall’Australian Technical Analysts Association e ha conseguito un diploma post-laurea in finanza applicata e investimenti presso Kaplan Professional (FINSIA), Australia, dove è stata docente per diversi anni.

Julian Manoilov

Marketing Lead

Julian è entrato a far parte di Leverage Shares nel 2018 come parte della prima espansione della società in Europa orientale. È responsabile della progettazione di strategie di marketing e della promozione della notorietà del marchio.

Oktay Kavrak

Head of Communications and Strategy

Oktay è entrato a far parte di Leverage Shares alla fine del 2019. È responsabile della crescita aziendale, mantenendo relazioni chiave e sviluppando attività di vendita nei mercati di lingua inglese.

È entrato in LS da UniCredit, dove è stato responsabile delle relazioni aziendali per le multinazionali. La sua precedente esperienza è in finanza aziendale e amministrazione di fondi in società come IBM Bulgaria e DeGiro / FundShare.

Oktay ha conseguito una laurea in Finanza e contabilità ed un certificato post-laurea in Imprenditoria presso il Babson College. Ha ottenuto anche la certificazione CFA.

Sandeep Rao

Research
Sandeep è entrato a far parte di Leverage Shares nel settembre 2020. È responsabile della ricerca sulle linee di prodotto esistenti e nuove, su asset class e strategie, con particolare riguardo all’analisi degli eventi attuali ed i loro sviluppi. Sandeep ha una lunga esperienza nei mercati finanziari. Iniziata in un hedge fund di Chicago come ingegnere finanziario, la sua carriera è proseguita in numerose società ed organizzazioni, nel corso di 8 anni – da Barclays (Capital’s Prime Services Division) al più recente Index Research Team di Nasdaq. Sandeep detiene un M.S. in Finanza ed un MBA all’Illinois Institute of Technology di Chicago.

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