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Tesla Delivers but Faces Headwinds

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  • Record High Deliveries
  • BYD Overtakes Tesla
  • Tesla’s Bumpy Road

Record High Deliveries

In 2023, Tesla achieved significant sales, exceeding the estimated 1.8 million vehicles, a notable accomplishment under Elon Musk’s leadership. This achievement can be attributed to strategic price cuts designed to stimulate demand in an increasingly competitive electric vehicle (EV) market.

Tesla’s sales showed a 38% increase in 2023 compared to the previous year, indicating a slight deceleration in its growth rate. The company is now navigating a more competitive environment characterized by measured expansion and reduced profit margins.

Despite reaching this impressive milestone, Tesla’s CEO had ambitiously hinted at a target of 2.0 million sales last year, a goal that remained unmet.

Nevertheless, over the past 16 years, Tesla has sold close to 5.5 million electric vehicles, a testament to the significant impact that the company had in the EV market.

A graph showing Tesla's sales over the years. Source: ir.tesla.com

During the latest quarter, the EV automaker smashed its previous record of 466k deliveries by handing over 485k EVs to its loyal customers.

Moreover, the company has finally begun delivering its long-awaited Cybertruck to its ecstatic customers.

A graph showing Tesla's deliveries by model.

Source: brandude87 & Tesla IR (Reddit)

BYD Overtakes Tesla

This month marked a milestone for the Chinese vehicle manufacturer BYD, which surpassed Tesla’s Q4 sales for the first time. BYD sold 526k battery-only electric vehicles, outperforming Tesla’s Q4 sales of 485k in 2023.

A graph comparing BYD and Tesla's sales.

Source: Bloomberg

On an annual basis, BYD recorded a growth rate of 70% Year-over-Year, selling nearly 1.6 million battery-powered vehicles compared to 1.81 million by its competitor Tesla.

This intense rivalry has caused Tesla to slash prices in China to boost the demand for its products.

Tesla revealed new pricing for its Model 3 sedan and Model Y SUV, with the Model 3 seeing a 5.9% cut to $34,600, while the Model Y got a 2.8% discount to $36,400.

Tesla’s Bumpy Road

Tesla (TSLA) intends to suspend operations at its primary European facility in Berlin for a fortnight due to a shortage of components. This move indicates the beginning of the global economic impact resulting from the recent assaults on vessels in the Red Sea.

Tesla announced that it will cease most of its production activities at its plant near Berlin from January 29 to February 11 due to a component shortage. The company plans to resume production on February 12.

To add to the challenges Tesla’s investors face, the company is set to increase the salaries of its entire US workforce. Consequently, Tesla’s profit margins are expected to suffer further due to rising operating expenses.

Also, Tesla has recalled 1.6 million cars in China due to technical issues with its driver assistance to fix autopilot issues, in a similar move to the one they did in the US last month. The recall in the United States occurred during an extensive investigation by the leading automotive safety authority into accidents involving driver-assist systems over several years.

Lastly, Hertz, a rental company, is offloading approximately 20k electric vehicles, including Teslas, from its U.S. fleet. This move comes roughly two years after the firm’s agreement with the automaker to provide its vehicles for rental, indicating a downturn in the demand for electric vehicles.

All the price cuts have also hit Tesla’s gross margins (GM) to boost the demand for its products.

Graph illustrating the changes in Tesla's Gross Margins.

Source: Company Data

Look at how, steadily, Tesla’s GM has been shrinking and even falling behind competitors Toyota and VW, halving from 34% to 16% in two years.

Are margins ready to bounce off in a big way, especially given that the most anticipated recession is yet to materialize in the US? And what will drive earnings growth for Tesla?

Those questions will probably be addressed in the next major company update on 24-Jan-2024 when Tesla releases its Q4’2023 earnings!

Investors can long Tesla using our 1x Tesla, 2x Tesla, 3x Tesla.

Alternatively, traders can short Tesla using our -1x Tesla, -2x Tesla, -3x Tesla.

Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.

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Violeta Todorova

Senior Research

Violeta è entrata a far parte di Leverage Shares nel settembre 2022. È responsabile dello svolgimento di analisi tecniche e ricerche macroeconomiche ed azionarie, fornendo pregiate informazioni per aiutare a definire le strategie di investimento per i clienti.

Prima di cominciare con LS, Violeta ha lavorato presso diverse società di investimento di alto profilo in Australia, come Tollhurst e Morgans Financial, dove ha trascorso gli ultimi 12 anni della sua carriera.

Violeta è un tecnico di mercato certificato dall’Australian Technical Analysts Association e ha conseguito un diploma post-laurea in finanza applicata e investimenti presso Kaplan Professional (FINSIA), Australia, dove è stata docente per diversi anni.

Julian Manoilov

Marketing Lead

Julian è entrato a far parte di Leverage Shares nel 2018 come parte della prima espansione della società in Europa orientale. È responsabile della progettazione di strategie di marketing e della promozione della notorietà del marchio.

Oktay Kavrak

Head of Communications and Strategy

Oktay è entrato a far parte di Leverage Shares alla fine del 2019. È responsabile della crescita aziendale, mantenendo relazioni chiave e sviluppando attività di vendita nei mercati di lingua inglese.

È entrato in LS da UniCredit, dove è stato responsabile delle relazioni aziendali per le multinazionali. La sua precedente esperienza è in finanza aziendale e amministrazione di fondi in società come IBM Bulgaria e DeGiro / FundShare.

Oktay ha conseguito una laurea in Finanza e contabilità ed un certificato post-laurea in Imprenditoria presso il Babson College. Ha ottenuto anche la certificazione CFA.

Sandeep Rao

Research
Sandeep è entrato a far parte di Leverage Shares nel settembre 2020. È responsabile della ricerca sulle linee di prodotto esistenti e nuove, su asset class e strategie, con particolare riguardo all’analisi degli eventi attuali ed i loro sviluppi. Sandeep ha una lunga esperienza nei mercati finanziari. Iniziata in un hedge fund di Chicago come ingegnere finanziario, la sua carriera è proseguita in numerose società ed organizzazioni, nel corso di 8 anni – da Barclays (Capital’s Prime Services Division) al più recente Index Research Team di Nasdaq. Sandeep detiene un M.S. in Finanza ed un MBA all’Illinois Institute of Technology di Chicago.

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